TH£ PROPH£T

The Derby - Pinstickers' Guide

2010-06-04T23:21:00.004+01:00

Al Zir
Easy winner of first two juvenile starts before losing his unbeaten tag when 3rd to the classy St Nicholas Abbey and Elusive Pimpernel in the Racing Post Trophy (Coordinated Cut well beaten). Adequate seasonal reappearance in this year's 2000 Guineas when 9th after a slow start (Buzzword behind). My ante-post pick last week at 33/1 and should go well if staying the trip. The booking of Fallon is a positive but his draw isn't.
***

At First Sight
Pacemaker for stronger fancied stablemates but there have been worst 200/1 shots than this fella. Could stay there for longer than most think but would need traffic problems behind to last out for a money-finish.
**

Azmeer
Single-figure price in a place which looks very short indeed on what he has achieved. Slight stamina doubts too.
**

Bullet Train
Lingfield isn't the trial it once was and it's difficult to know exactly what Bullet Train achieved when taking this year's race last month. Form prior to that win nowhere near good enough, it's all about how much he has improved.
**

Buzzword
I tipped each-way at 40/1 in the French Guineas so I wasn't surprised to see him run well. I like him but massive stamina concerns here and has form to find with Al Zir.
*

Coordinated Cut
Form of his Newmarket Sales race could not have worked out any poorer and hard to make a case for him reversing Dante form with Workforce.
*

Hot Prospect
Too much form to find with rivals.
*

Jan Vermeer
Grand Criterium winner at two and very impressive under a G1 penalty at the Curragh LTO. Should improve for the trip and obvious chance. Drifting to a reasonable price too.
****

Midas Touch
Done little wrong, relishing the step up in trip in the Derrinstown Stud trial, and should improve further for the extra two furlongs here. Beaten twice by Jan Vermeer but over a mile. Likely to run well, but probably in defeat.
***

Rewilding
Supplemented entry after his impressive Goodwood victory. Previously trained in France and I know very little about him. Dettori's pick so has to be feared but I personally cannot take 7/1 about a horse I know very little about.
***

Ted Spread
Good luck to the small owners here but he makes no appeal. Not a fan of the yard or the trial he won. Ground may be too lively also.
*

Workforce
Coordinated Cut's third place may show up the Dante form but Workforce will undoubtedly come on for that performance. I expect a big run but his improvement is already factored into his price, therefore he is not for me.
***

Grand National 2010 - A Return To Form

2010-04-11T12:44:00.002+01:00

Unlike last year, I was totally satisfied after the race and this review will have a totally different feel to that of last year's.

A truly run race meant that any chinks in armours were fully exposed, there was nowhere to hide after Becher's this year, you were not allowed to creep into contention due to an inconsistent pace. It was a furious gallop, those racing in front rank were benefitted (as has been the case many times in years gone by), ignoring Conna Castle who was never going to stay, the 1-2-4-5 where the front four from the twenty-fence mark. For the most part there were no flattered performances - this is reliable form and it reminded me of the Nationals of old and why, at an early age, I fell in love with this race, and ultimately horse racing overall.

The finishers...

Don't Push It
I have to say, this horse was not anywhere near my final short-list. It seemed to be that AP was merely picking the best of an average bunch. He was a top novice, running Denman close and was going well when falling in the Arkle, however that is why I overlooked him, he seemed to show too much pace in his early career to be considered a National type. Looking back, the clues were there, Jonjo protected his handicap mark prior to winning at this meeting last year and he clearly did the same this year. However I just felt there were possibly better treated rivals and that stamina was a concern, plus the fact that a McCoy mount was likely to be overbet. I was wrong, the horse come of age and must go down as one of the classiest winners in recent times. No one deserves this success more than the jockey and owner, McCoy will obviously fill the headlines but for J-P McManus, one of the game's biggest supporters, this is a deserved day in the sun.

Black Apalachi
You have to feel for this fella, twice a faller in previous years including when in contention at Becher's in 2009, he hit the front at the run up to Becher's and run his heart out all the way to the line. Horses and rider did everything right, they just ran into a better rival .

State Of Play
His finishing position is slightly flattering considering he past the tired Hello Bud and Big Fella Thanks in the run-in. He definitely wasn't third best on merit but deserves plenty of credit for finishing placed two years running, especially considering they were totally different races in how they were run.

Big Fella Thanks
Such was the level of my confidence behind my main ante-post fancy, advised each-way at 20/1, I went in again at 10/1 the evening before the race, still believing him to be the best each-way value on offer. Although Ruby Walsh's injury, and the imminent jockey change, was a concern, Barry Geraghty gave him fine ride and there can be no complaints. I whispered to myself the most famous of all punter's mid-race Grand National prayers; "just get over Becher's" as barring accidents he looked booked for at least a place a long way from home. However despite holding a share of the lead two out, he didn't get home. He finished fairly tired and although he weakened into fourth place, he was third best on merit.

Hello Bud
For me he looked one of the few outsiders who was capable of running a big race and one I decided to advised each-way (40/1 five places) on the day. He was backed down to 20/1, a price more idicative of his chances and given he has all the attributes needed for Grand National success it was no surprise to see him run well. He looked certain to play a part in the finish but weakened going to the second last. For a real stayer it was surprising to see him fall away tamely but perhaps

Snowy Morning
Run the race many thought he would, completed but never looked like winning. A third, ninth and now sixth place finish in the race but never going to win it.

Character Building
Nina Carberry gave the grey a very patient ride, perhaps too patient as she seemed happy to sit 25l off the pace at halfway. He made late headway and a placing looked probable as he jumped the last in a share of fifth, however as usual he failed to finish his racing. Connections must surely attempt to re-apply some form of headgear in the future.

Cloudy Lane
Not surprised to see Cloudy Lane complete for the second time in three years, he made up some late ground, as he was tailed off as late as four out, but was never in contention.

Tricky Trickster
This year's National was always going to be a tough ask on just his seventh chasing start and he was never on terms. He was badly hampered by fallers at the 20th but was already struggling. I suppose one so inexperienced deserves credit for getting around and he will be stronger next season, that said, he didn't run anywhere near as Big Fella Thanks did last year.

Joe Lively
Completed in his own time after getting left behind at halfway.

The other of the finishers; Cerium, Comply Or Die, Piraya and Preists Leap were all tailed off.

Of those who didn't complete...

King Johns Castle hasn't been right since finishing second two years ago, campaigned extensively at shorter trips before and after the 2008 race obviously took plenty out of him. How big a mark did that run make on King Johns Castle? I think the old boy remembered, realised where he was and said "No thanks, find another mug!"

Niche Market was probably the biggest disappointment of the race. He didn't travel front rank as expected, was never in contention, and was eventually pulled up after the third last.

Vic Venturi was badly hampered at least twice before he was so again at the 20th, this time cruicially. Nothing went right for him and it's probably not fair to judge his performance in any way.

Last year's winner, Mon Mome, was in rear throughout but started to creep into just before falling at the 26th. He was thankfully none the worse for a horrible looking fall. Given his stamina it's probable he would've brought home some prize-money.

Backstage, Arbor Supreme, The Package, Maljimar, Ballyfitz and Madison Du Berlais comments to follow...

Grand National Pinstickers' Guide

2010-04-08T20:38:00.008+01:00

Madison Du Berlais
A much improved chaser since falling at the 8th in 2008 but has so far failed to show the same form he did in the 2009 season. Loves Aintree and could stay the trip. Would need to be back to his best to figure of top-weight but the national fences may bring back some of his spark - 50/1. ***

Mon Mome
Last year's winner looks sure to give another bold showing and, given his third in the Gold Cup, is arguably the best treated former-winner I can remember. That said, it's such tough ask to win back-to-back Nationals - 12/1. ***

Vic Venturi
Already won over the National fences when taking the Becher Chase earlier this season and in theory is well handicapped having won the Bobbyjo Chase off this mark LTO. However I still believe there are better handicapped horses in the field - 20/1. **

Black Apalachi
Second-favourite with some bookmakers but failed to complete in 2008 and 2009. Was still going well when unseating at Becher's last year but it's possible his best chance has gone - 14/1. **

Joe Lively
A busy (and succesful) novice season in 07/08 has taken it's toll. Good jumper but looked weighted to the hilt - 100/1. *

Dont Push It
The pick of Tony McCoy but in reality it's similar to Fabio Cappello picking between Darren Bent and Emile Heskey if there was no Wayne Rooney - 25/1. *

Comply Or Die
Almost pulled off back-to-back wins when runner-up to Mon Mome last year (won in 2008). Sure to give another good account - 20/1. ***

Tricky Trickster
Everything was going to plan for the long time ante-post favourite until he run poorly in the Gold Cup. The National is only his 7th chase start (10th career start) and it may all be a bit too soon - 16/1. **

Niche Market
Last year's Irish Grand National winner has been brought along steadily this year. Should be tailor-made for this given his running style, jumping and stamina reserves. Very likely to hold a chance (at least) turning for home - 18/1. ****

Made In Taipan
Massive leap of faith needed with regards to him staying the trip and handicapped on totally irrelevant form (2miles) - 200/1. *

Dream Alliance
Welsh National winner but won't get the slog he needs due to the decent ground, lacks the class to win the real Grand National - 40/1. *

Cloudy Lane
Favourite in 2008 but could only manage sixth behind Comply Or Die and unseated at the Chair last year. Probably doesn't quite stay 4m4f but well handicapped on best form. I can see him running well for a long way but his challenge may peter out - 40/1. **

Nozic
Runs in the colours of Sun readers but more chance of Ann Widdecombe appearing on Page 3 on Monday than this fella making the back page. Another with stamina concerns - 100/1. *

My Will
Well fancied when third last year (2lbs lower this year) in a race that wasn't run to suit. Came into that race in fine form but that isn't the case this season. A return to form, a possibility over these fences, could see him run well again - 40/1. ***

Pablo Du Charmil
Big fan of trainer and jockey combo but only ever won over 2m2f and extensively campaign at and around that trip - 150/1. *

Ballyholland
Another with no evidence to suggest he will stay - 33/1. *

Backstage
Cleared the fences when eigth in last year's Foxhunters and laid out for this since. Trainer already won a Grand National in his short career but I can't help thinking that his priced is based on his trainer's qualities rather than his own - 25/1. **

Beat The Boys
Should be nicknamed "Pip" at home as he has two ways of running, seems to either win or fail to complete. Last thirteen runs read 11P13PFP1P1PP. Hard to see the reason behind such inconsistency but would will run well if on a going day. One of the better three-figure priced horses - 150/1. **

Preists Leap
Likes it bottomless and all best form on right-handed undulating tracks. Be a fish out of water here - 125/1. *

Snowy Morning
Odds-on to complete having finished third in 2008 and ninth last year. Back to his best recently and well handicapped on recent and best form. However not many win their first National at their third attempt. Must run well but not definitely not a win-only horse - 16/1. ***

Can't Buy Time
Was cantering all over Tricky Trickster in last year's National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival but failed to see out the 4m. Would need to be in a horse-box to stay the National trip and recently abandonned by McCoy - 33/1. *

Big Fella Thanks
Sixth as a novice last year on just his seventh chase start. A year older, more experienced and looks to have improved, obvious chance considering he is 3lbs lower this year - 8/1. *****

State Of Play
Raced just once since fourth in last year's event. Such a tough ask to win this on the back of a light campaign, even for one who goes well fresh. Woefully short (3rd-favourite) with some bookmakers - 20/1. *

Character Building
Doesn't always find as much as expected in a finish so will always be well handicapped if they can get him to click in the latter stages of races. Best performance by some way came at the Cheltenham Festival last year when winning the Kim Muir - fitted with a first-time tongue-tie that day which oddly has been applied since, I'm convinced he needs headgear help of some form - 20/1. *

Ellersie George
Sure to be leading at some stage but has a tendancy to jump right. Will probably make too much use of himself in the first circuit and drop away - 100/1. *

Eric's Charm
In fine form but this couldn't have been the original plan for Oliver Sherwood's veteran. Fell over the fences in the Topham in 2008 - 50/1. *

King Johns Castle
Travelled like a dream but out-stayed by Comply Or Die when runner-up in 2008 and injury kept him out of last year's race. Impossible to tell if he is back to his best, having been campaigned over hurdles of late, but obvious chance if he can reproduce 2008's run - 33/1. **

Conna Castle
Another Irish two-miler to ignore - 150/1. *

Ballyfitz
Put in the odd blunder (putting it mildly) but well handicapped on best form. If, and it's a big if, he takes to these fences, then he will run well. However, as much as I don't like to say it, one of the big fences may cause him problems. Taking everything into consideration, still one of the better rank outsiders - 66/1. **

Ollie Magern
Always thought the National would be ideal for this horse; front runner, goes well left-handed and jumps well. However he performed so well in his early career that he was two high in the handicap for races such as this. Regressing these days, only one win since 2005, and fell early last year, but could give Tom Molloy a good ride in front rank for a way. Not entitled to be the rank outsider - 200/1. **

Arbor Supreme
Will stay but I worry he hasn't had enough racing this year. Under-priced on what he has actaully achieved - 18/1. **

Maljimar
His third in the 4m Cross Country chase at Cheltenham goes some way to proving he will stay. Not easy to win with, needs to be produced right, so possibly not a National type, however is over priced, well handicapped and could run well without winning - 33/1. **

The Package
Has always been well regarded and it's surely a matter of time before this horse wins a big race. Well handicapped for his and looks in need of a longer trip than the 3m he has recently been campaigned over. Probably the pick of the weights but this may have come a little too soon for
the seven year old - 14/1. ***

Piraya
Obvious stamina concerns - 150/1. *

Irish Raptor
76261U over the National fences but all those efforts were over the shorter trips in the Topham or Becher chases. A fair bet to finish but surely connections would've run this eleven year old over this sort of trip already, had they really believed him to be a stayer - 33/1. *

Cerium
Gallant performance to finish fifth last year despite finishing with an injury, however looks massively flattered on that and easily over loooked - 66/1. *

Palypso De Creek
Raced just four times in the UK but was forth in the Becher Chase for one of those. Not quite a two-star chance but probably not entitled to be as big as 100/1. *

Hello Bud
Scottish National winner last year and the ideal Aintree horse; travels front rank, jumps well, stays well. Shame it's taken this long (now 12) to get him high enough in the handicap to take his chance. Definitely capable of a big run at big odds - 50/1. ***

Flintoff
With just three runs in two years it's a worry he is physically or mentally ready for his - 66/1. *

Royal Rosa
Cost £340,000 back in 2003 but never lived up to his price-tag. Connections were keen for him to take his chance and he sneaks in as second reserve. Placed over the fences in November and sixth in the 2008 Scottish National, however doesn't look particualrly well treated off a mark of 139 - 100/1. *

1st April - 11th April

2010-04-08T11:17:00.002+01:00

1st April
Just Rob 0.5pt win - WON 11/4 (adv)

3rd April
Myplacelater 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Mosquearas Romance 0.5pt EW - 2nd 9/1 (adv)
Dominium 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Peadar Miguel 0.25pt EW - unplaced

4th April
Bogside Theatre 0.25pt win - 3rd
Outrageous Request 0.25pt EW - unplaced
She's In The Money 0.5pt win - WON 9/4 (adv)

5th April
Officier De Reserve 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Lady Florence 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Mr Rainbow 0.5pt EW - unplaced

6th April
Into Wain 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Mackintosh 0.5pt win - unplaced
Luisa Tettrazini 0.25pt EW - unplaced

7th April
Lingfield Bound 0.25pt EW - 2nd 13/2
Rubi Dia 0.5pt win - unplaced
Red Hot Desert 0.5pt win - 2nd
Trip Switch 0.5pt EW - unplaced
West Kirk 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Plymouth Rock 0.5pt win - 2nd

March: Record Profits Achieved

2010-04-01T02:01:00.007+01:00

Although January's record 64% yield could not be topped, the profit achieved in March is the greatest since the service has been in operation. Just under 42pts profit, putting us around 60pts in front for 2010. Both yield and profit record smashed and we're only three months into 2010.

Successful bets advised on 23 (of 31) days with many big priced winners...

Quasi Congaree WON 25/1 (adv)
Great Endevour WON 22/1 (adv)

...and massive ante-post success...

Penitent WON 9/2 (adv)
Mon Mome PLACED at 40/1 & 33/1
Powerstation PLACED at 40/1, 33/1 & 20/1

March Totals
Staked 85.75pts
Returns 127.48pts
Profit 41.73pts
Yield 49%

29th March - 31st March

2010-04-01T01:15:00.002+01:00

29th March
Quasi Congaree 0.25pt EW - WON 25/1 (adv)
Poppanan 0.5pt win - unplaced
Lochantanks 0.25pt win - unplaced
Laskingofscotland 0.5pt win - 2nd
Coxwain 0.5pt win - 2nd
Sheila's Bond 0.5pt win - unplaced
Una Pelota 1pt win - unplaced
Broughtons Point 0.5pt win - 3rd

30th March
King Raven 0.25pt EW - 2nd 25/1

31st March
Slickback Jack 0.5pt win - unplaced

March Totals
Staked 85.75pts
Returns 127.48pts
Profit 41.73pts
Yield 49%

22nd March - 28th March

2010-04-01T00:22:00.002+01:00

22nd March
Athaakeel 0.25pt EW - unplaced

23rd March
Respective Way 0.25pt EW - unplaced

24th March
Myplacelater 0.25pt EW - 2nd 10/1 (adv)
Clever Omneya 0.25pt EW - unplaced

25th March
La Polka 0.25pt EW - unplaced
On Terms 0.25pt EW - 2nd 14/1 (adv)

26th March
Secret Witness 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Medicean Man 0.25pt win - WON 12/1 (adv)
Jennys Pride 0.25pt EW - unplaced

27th March
Tiddliwinks 0.5pt win - 3rd
Red Cadeaux 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Penitent 1pt EW - WON 9/2 (adv)
Mull Of Killough 0.5pt EW - 3rd 11/1
Abayaan 1pt win - unplaced
Hallstatt 0.25pt EW - unplaced

28th March
Jonny Mudball 1pt win - unplaced

March 15th - March 21st

2010-03-21T16:22:00.002Z

15th March
Ultimate 0.5pt win - 3rd

16th March
Oscar Whisky 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Somersby 0.25pt EW - 2nd 9/2
Ogee 0.25pt EW - 2nd 11/1 (adv)
Punjabi 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Khyber Kim 0.25pt EW - 2nd 15/2 (adv)
Ferneys Will 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Petite De Soliel 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Lean Burn 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Nyetimber 0.25pt EW - unplaced

17th March
Any Currency 0.25pt EW - 4th 9/1 (adv)
Pennek 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Chasing Cards 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Burton Port 0.25pt EW - 2nd 12/1 (adv)
Silk Affair 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Chief Yeoman 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Bothy 0.25pt win - unplaced
Riptide 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Prince Pippin 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Dunraven Storm 0.25t EW - unplaced
Buxted 1.5pt win - WON 5/2 (adv)
New Leyf 1.5pt win - WON 3/1 (adv)
Secret Witness 0.5pt win - unplaced

18th March
Rivaliste 0.5pt EW - unplaced
Kings Forest 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Ainama 0.5pt EW - unplaced
Alfie Sherrin 0.5pt win - unplaced
Barbers Shop 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Powerstation 0.25pt EW - 3rd 33/1 (adv ante-post)
Powerstation 0.25pt EW - 2nd 16/1 (adv ante-post w/o Big Bucks)
Powerstation 0.25pt EW - 3rd 40/1 (adv)
Powerstation 0.25pt EW - 2nd 20/1 (adv w/o Big Bucks)
Atouchbetweenacara 0.25pt win - unplaced
My Petra 0.25pt win - unplaced
Great Endevour 0.25pt win - WON 22/1 (adv)
Khachaturian 0.25pt EW - 5th 20/1
Heathcliff 0.25pt each-way - unplaced
Dajen 0.5pt win - WON 9/4

19th March
Carlito Brigante 0.5pt win - 4th
Alaivan 0.5pt win - 3rd
Any Given Day 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Pascha Bere 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Izita Star 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Mon Mome 0.25pt EW - 2nd 40/1 (adv ante-post w/o big two)
Mon Mome 0.25pt EW - 2nd 33/1 (adv)
Ashkazar 0.5pt EW - unplaced
You're The Top 0.5pt win - unplaced
Nomecheki 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Safari Journey 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Farncombe 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Commandingpresence 0.25pt - unplaced
Dream On Buddy 0.5pt win - WON 7/4 (adv)
Trip Switch 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Quiet Mountain 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Danderek 0.5pt win - WON 14/1
Monaco Dream 0.25pt win - unplaced
Kings Masque 0.25pt win - unplaced
Jezza 0.5pt EW - 2nd 12/1 (adv)

20th March
Action Impact 0.5pt win - unplaced
Monsieur Jordain 0.25pt EW - 2nd 16/1

21st March
Misstree Dancer 0.5pt win - WON 6/4 (adv)

8th March - 14th March

2010-03-11T20:08:00.004Z

8th March
Beyond 1pt win - WON 4/5 (adv)

9th March
Cardinal 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Apache Moon 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Sirjosh 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Royal Crest 0.25pt EW - unplaced

10th March
Trip Switch 0.25pt EW - 2nd 20/1 (adv)
Saddlers Bend 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Spring Bridge 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Lord Fidelio 0.5pt EW - unplaced
Athaakeel 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Satwa Moon 2pts win - 3rd
Dajen 1pt EW - WON 7/1 (adv)
Trade Centre 0.25pt EW - unplaced

11th March
Whooshka 0.25pt EW - 2nd 6/1
Jan Mayen 0.75pt win - unplaced
Singbella 0.75pt win - unplaced

12th March
Nafaath 1pt win - WON 6/4 (adv)
Hallstatt 0.25pt win - unplaced
Mosquereas Romance 1pt win - 2nd
Seldom 0.25pt win - unplaced
Smarties Party 0.5pt EW - 2nd 7/1
M'Lady Rousseur 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Lady Mickataine 0.25pt win - WON 8/1 (adv)

13th March
Red Harbour 0.25pt EW - WON 7/1 (adv)
Diamond Brook 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Pascha Bere 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Treaty Flyer 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Cheshire Prince 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Busy Isit 0.25pt EW - WON 10/1 (first past the post)
Mias Boy 0.5pt win - 2nd
Fanunalter 0.5pt EW - 2nd 9/2 (adv)
Tiddliwinks 0.5pt EW - WON 5/1 (adv)

14th March
King In Waiting 0.25pt EW - 2nd 5/1 (adv) (15p R4)

1st March - 7th March

2010-03-02T20:27:00.004Z

1st March
Satwa Moon 0.5pt EW - WON 6/1 (adv)
Jeannie 0.25pt EW - unplaced
One Cool Dream 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Saddlers Bend 1pt win - WON 6/5 (adv)

2nd March
Secret Witness 0.5pt win - 2nd

3rd March
Cardinal 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Blues Forever 0.5pt win - unplaced
Maigold Rose 0.5pt win - unplaced
Broughtons Point 0.5pt win - WON 14/1
Smarties Party 0.5pt win - 2nd
Lastroseofsummer 0.25pt win - 3rd 33/1 (T/C paid 3188/1)
Divine Force 0.5pt win - 3rd
On Terms 0.5pt win - unplaced
Slick Mover 0.5pt win - unplaced

4th March
Reverand Green 0.5pt win - 3rd
Whooshka 0.5pt win - WON 7/2
Monsieur Harvey 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Montego Breeze 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Saddlers Bend 1pt win - 3rd

5th March
Lastkingofscotland 0.5pt win - WON 5/2 (adv)
Merals Choice 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Atacama Sunrise 0.25pt EW - 2nd 10/1 (adv)

6th March
Wogan 0.25pt EW - WON 6/1 (adv)
Pasco 0.5pt win - 2nd
Our Vic 0.25pt win - unplaced
Regal Heights 0.25pt win - unplaced

7th March
Rapid Increase 0.5pt win - 2nd

22nd February - 28th February

2010-02-22T18:05:00.006Z

22nd February
Spinning Bailiwick 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Mutajaaser 0.5pt EW - 3rd 7/1 (adv)
Singbella 0.25pt win - unplaced
Shannon Golden 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Global Village 0.25pt EW - WON 10/1 (adv)

23rd February
Jewelled 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Atacama Sunrise 0.25pt EW - 3rd 15/2 (adv)
Foreign Investment 0.25pt EW - unplaced

24th February
Spinning Bridge 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Morar 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Franco Is My Name 0.5pt win - WON 6/4 (adv)
Cry Alot Boy 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Sutton Veny 0.5pt win - WON 11/8 (adv)

25th February
Cornish Castle 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Isitcozimcool 1pt win - unplaced
Meml 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Clever Omneya 0.25pt EW - 3rd 5/1 (adv)
Lord Fidelio 0.75pt win - 2nd
Imperal House 0.25pt win - unplaced
King's Salute 0.5pt win - pulled up

26th February
New Leyf 1pt win - unplaced
Across The Sands 0.25pt EW - unplaced

27th February
Madison Du Berlais 0.25pt EW - 4th
Le Burf 0.25pt EW - 3rd 16/1 (adv)
Gitano Hernando 1pt win - WON 8/11 (adv)

28th February
Sunshine Always 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Try Cat 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Happy Fleet 0.25pt EW - 2nd 25/1 (adv)

15th February - 21st February

2010-02-18T21:39:00.005Z

15th February
My Les 1pt win - 2nd
Gee Dee Nen 0.5pt EW - unplaced
Sir Josh 0.25pt EW - 3rd 9/1 (adv)
Pipers Piping 0.5pt EW - WON 10/3 (adv)

16th February
Fuzzy Cat 0.5pt win - WON 11/4 (adv)
Tail Of The Bank 0.25pt EW - WON 9/2 (adv)
Kingsdale Orion 0.25pt EW - unplaced

17th February
Nyetimber 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Franco Is My Name 1pt win - WON 5/2 (adv)
Lord Fidelio 0.5pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Trade Centre 0.5pt win - 3rd
Celtic Sovereign 1.5pts win - pulled up
Spinning Bailiwick 0.25pt EW - pulled up

18th February
Rapid Increase 0.5pt win - 2nd
Tobrata 0.25pt EW - 2nd 10/1 (adv)
Mackintosh 0.5pt win - 2nd

19th February
Farncombe 1pt win - unplaced
Oceans Edge 0.5pt EW - unplaced
Pipers Piping 1.5pt win - WON 9/4 (adv)
Yourgoldtravel Com 0.25pt win - unplaced
Atacam Sunrise 0.5pt win - 3rd

20th February
Quinsman 0.5pt win - unplaced
December Draw 0.5pt win - WON 3/1 (adv)
Count Boris 0.25pt EW - 2nd 9/2 (adv)

Massive January Results

2010-01-31T11:25:00.009Z

A fantastic January...

37pts profit
64% yield

The month started brightly on New Year's Day with the Cheltenham winners Can't Buy Time (11.5/1) and Wolf Moon (10/3), and it just got better and better. The highlights being...

4 winners advised on the 11th, including Slick Mover at 33/1 (adv).
4 winners advised on the 19th, all priced 7/2 and above.
Massive priced winner (Taranis 16/1) on the final Saturday of the month, callers confidently told not to worry about the two-year absence.
Ending the month on a high with winning naps at 7/2, 6/1, 9/4, and 2/1 in the final week of January.

All bets
Bets 75 (races)
Winners 36
S/R 48%
Staked 57.75pts
Returns 94.8pts
Profit 37.05pts
Yield 64%

All-Weather
Bets 68 (races)
Winners 32
S/R 47%
Staked 51.25pts
Returns 81.25pts
Profit 30pts
Yield 59%

National Hunt
Bets 7 (races)
Winners 4
S/R 57%
Staked 6.5
Returns 13.55
Profit 7.05
Yield 108%

Backing only the most confident selections (1pt win bets) produced 11.58pts profit, a 145% return-on-investment.

Early days of course but 2010 has the potential to be a record-breaking twelve months.

Be lucky

TH£ PROPH£T

For details see Racing Post for advertisements. All bets proofed to the Racing Post.

25th January - 31st January

2010-01-28T18:04:00.007Z

25th January
Wolverhampton
Freyas Flight 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Head First 0.25pt EW - WON 7/2 (adv)

26th January
Southwell
I'm In The Pink 0.25pt EW - unplaced

27th January
Lingfield
Trip Switch 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Fine Silk 0.5pt EW - unplaced
Wotsit 0.25pt EW - unplaced

Kempton
Slick Mover 0.25pt EW - WON 8/1 (adv)
Ladies Dancing 0.25pt EW - 3rd 33/1 (adv)
Stella Cause 0.25pt EW - unplaced

28th January
Southwell
Laureldeans Best 0.25pt EW - 3rd 14/1

Kempton
Clever Omneya 0.5pt EW - WON 6/1
M'Lady Roussier 0.5pt win - unplaced
Quinsman 0.5pt win - 2nd

29th January
Wolverhampton
Lyrical Intent 0.5pt win - WON 9/4 (adv)

30th January
Cheltenham
Five Dream 0.25pt EW - 4th
Taranis 0.25pt EW - WON 16/1

Lingfield
Tiddliwinks 0.5pt win - unplaced

31st January
Kempton
Erinjay 1pt win - WON 2/1

All bets 2010
Bets 75 (races)
Winners 36
S/R 48%
Staked 57.75pts
Returns 94.8pts
Profit 37.05pts
Yield 64%

All-Weather 2010
Bets 68 (races)
Winners 32
S/R 47%
Staked 51.25pts
Returns 81.25pts
Profit 30pts
Yield 59%

National Hunt 2010
Bets 7 (races)
Winners 4
S/R 57%
Staked 6.5
Returns 13.55
Profit 7.05
Yield 108%

All bets proofed to the Racing Post.

18th January - 24th January

2010-01-17T17:09:00.005Z

18th January
Wolverhampton
Exceed Power 0.25pt EW - 3rd 11/2
I'm In The Pink 0.25pt EW - unplaced

19th January
Folkstone
Diktalina 0.25pt EW - WON 4/1 (adv)
The Saucy Snipe 0.25pt EW - 5th

Wolverhampton
Divine Force 1pt win - WON 4/1
Imperial House 0.5pt win - unplaced
Spinning Bailiwick 0.25pt EW - WON 11/2 (adv)
Lyrical Intent 0.25pt EW - WON 7/2

20th January
Lingfield
Rockys Pride 0.25pt EW - unplaced

Kempton
King's Miracle 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Michael Laskey 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Ravi River 0.25pt EW - unplaced

21st January
Wolverhampton
Wooshka 0.25pt win - unplaced
Bolanderi 0.25pt win - 3rd 25/1
Heathyards Junior 0.25pt win - unplaced

22nd January
Lingfield
Divine Force 1pt win - WON 5/2 (adv)
Celtic Sovereign 0.25pt win - 2nd
Atacama Sunrise 1pt EW - 4th

Wolverhampton
Luisa Tettrazini 0.25pt EW - 5th
Admiral Bond 0.5pt win - 2nd

23rd January
Lingfield
Tejime 0.5pt EW - unplaced

24th January
Lord Fidelio 0.75pt win - unplaced
Dajen 0.5pt win - unplaced
Just Timmy Marcus 0.25pt win - unplaced
Sutton Veny 0.25pt EW - WON 10/1

All bets 2010
Bets 59 (races)
Winners 29
S/R 49%
Staked 47.25pts
Returns 72.11pts
Profit 24.86pts
Yield 53%

All-Weather 2010
Bets 54 (races)
Winners 25
S/R 46%
Staked 41.75pts
Returns 64.06pts
Profit 22.31pts
Yield 53%

National Hunt 2010
Bets 5 (races)
Winners 3
S/R 60%
Staked 5.5
Returns 8.05
Profit 2.55
Yield 46%

All bets proofed to the Racing Post.

11th January -17th January

2010-01-11T20:41:00.016Z

January 11th
Wolverhampton
Heathyards Junior 1pt win - WON 5/6 (adv)
Divine Force 1pt win - WON 5/2 (adv)
Ryker 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Head First 0.5pt win - unplaced
Spring Fashion 0.25pt EW - unplaced

Kempton
The Wee Chief 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Slick Mover 0.25pt EW - WON 33/1 (adv) 15p R4
Lord Fidelio 0.25pt EW - WON 8/1 (adv)
Flying Gazebo 0.25pt EW - unplaced

January 12th
Southwell
Russian Music 1pt win - WON 7/4 (adv) 15p R4
Brandy Butter 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Primera Rossa 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Bicksta 0.25pt EW - WON 14/1 (adv)

Lingfield
Whotsit 0.25pt EW- unplaced

13th January
Kempton
King's Miracle 0.25pt EW - unplaced
Clever Omneya 0.25pt EW - 3rd 16/1
Such Optimism 0.5pt win - unplaced
Wicked Daze 0.5pt win - WON 7/4

14th Januray
Lingfield
Rainiers Girl 0.25pt EW - unplaced

15th January
Lingfield
Geezers Colours 0.5pt win - unplaced
Nicky Nutjob 0.25pt EW - unplaced

Wolverhampton
African Cheetah 0.25pt EW - 5th
Summer Affair 0.25pt EW - 5th

16th January
Lingfield
Atacama Sunrise 0.5pt EW - 4th
Bridge Of Gold 0.25pt EW - WON 6/1

Kempton
Aachen 0.25pt EW - unplaced

17th January
Wolverhampton
Wanchai Whisper 1pt win - 2nd 4/5
Son Of Monsieur 0.25pt EW - unplaced

All bets 2010
Bets 42 (races)
Winners 21
S/R 50%
Staked 32.5pts
Returns 54.06pts
Profit 21.56pts
Yield 66%

All-Weather 2010
Bets 38 (races)
Winners 19
S/R 50%
Staked 28pts
Returns 47.71pts
Profit 19.71pts
Yield 70%

National Hunt 2010
Bets 4 (races)
Winners 2
S/R 50%
Staked 4.5
Returns 6.35
Profit 1.85
Yield 41%

All bets proofed to the Racing Post.

1st January -10th January

2010-01-02T17:01:00.025Z

This post will be editted daily (hopefully!) with updated results.

All bets proofed to the Racing Post.

1st January
Cheltenham
Jass 0.5pt EW - lost
Chapoturgeon 1pt EW - lost
Can't Buy Time 0.25pt EW - WON 14/1 (adv) 11.5/1 after R4's
Wolf Moon 0.5pt win - WON 7/1 (adv) 7/2 after R4's

2nd January
Lingfield
Woolfall Sovereign 0.25pt EW - lost
Hector Spectre 0.25pt EW - lost

Southwell
Dontuwishitwereso 0.25pt win - WON 8/1 (adv)
Luisa Tettrazini 0.25pt win - 4th
Royal Crest 0.25pt E/W - 5th

3rd January
Kempton
Tripitaka 0.5pt win - WON 4/1
Tiddliwinks 0.5pt win - WON 5/2

4th January
Wolverhampton
Mackingtosh 0.25pt EW - 2nd 8/1 (adv)
Tallest Peak 0.5pt win - unplaced

5th January
Southwell
Russian Music 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
Summer Affair 0.25pt EW - unplaced

7th January
Southwell
Onemoreandstay 0.5pt win - 3rd

8th January
Lingfield
Divine Force 0.75pt win - 3rd
Imperial House 0.25pt win - WON 14/1 (adv)
Trip Switch 0.25pt EW - 6th
Dajen 0.25pt EW - 2nd 13/2

Southwell
Dontuwishitwereso 1pt win - unplaced
Bella Fightetta 0.25pt EW - unplaced

9th January
Kempton
Jan Mayen 0.25pt EW - 2nd 7/2
Lyrical Intent 0.5pt win - WON 5/2
Tiddliwinks 0.5pt win - WON 11/10 (adv)

Lingfield
Lord Fidelio 1pt win - unplaced

10th Januray
Southwell
Dream In Blue 0.5pt win - 3rd

All bets 2010
Bets 20 (races)
Winners 12
S/R 60%
Staked 16pts
Returns 24.37pts
Profit 8.37pts
Yield 52%

National Hunt 2010
Bets 3 (races)
Winners 2
S/R 67%
Staked 4
Returns 6.35
Profit 2.35
Yield 59%

All-Weather 2010
Bets 17 (races)
Winners 10
S/R 59%
Staked 12pts
Returns 18.02pts
Profit 6.02pts
Yield 50%

All-Weather Season 2009/10 - Results Update

2010-01-02T16:20:00.007Z

November Results
Bets in 45 races
17 winners
Staked 37.25
Returns 47.21
Profit 9.96pts
Yield 27%

December Results (up to 13th December inclusive, see earlier post)
Bets In 28 races
13 winners
Staked 24pts
Returns 27.12pts
Profit 3.12pts
Yield 13%

December Results (from 14th December onwards)
Bestowed 1pt E/W- 4th
Chosen Forever 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 20/1
Miss Glitters 0.5pt win - 2nd
Red Suede Shoes 0.5pt win - lost
Life's Challenge 0.5pt win - lost
Onemoreandstay 0.5pt win - 3rd
McConnell 1pt win - WON 4/5
King Red 0.5pt win - WON 10/3
Sheilas Castle 0.25pt E/W - lost
Tallest Peak 0.25pt win - WON 7/2
Dontuwishitwereso 0.25pt win - lost
Ishiadancer 0.25pt E/W - lost
Tallest Peak 0.5pt win - lost
West Kirk 0.25pt win - lost
Bestowed 0.75pt win - WON 4/1
Femme De Fer 1pt win - lost
Ediths Boy 0.5pt win - lost
Just Timmy Marcus 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Red Hot Desert 0.5pt E/W - lost
Spinning Bailiwick 0.5pt win - 3rd
L'Hirondelle 0.5pt E/W - WON 7/1
Mr Rio 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bounitful Bay 0.25pt E/W - lost
Nightjar 0.5pt win - 3rd
First Swallow 0.5pt win - 2nd
Admiral Bond 0.25pt win - lost
Across The Sands 0.25pt E/W - lost
Maria Di Scozia 0.25pt win - lost
Trade Centre 0.5pt win - lost
Decameron 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bestowed 0.5pt win - lost
Head First 0.5pt win - lost
Chosen Forever 1pt win - WON 2/1
Just Timmy Marcus 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 13/2
Outrageous Request 0.5pt win - 2nd
Sunny Spells 0.5pt win - 3rd
Triumphant Welcome 0.25pt E/W - lost
Dontuwishitwereso 0.25pt E/W - lost
Rockys Pride 1pt win - WON 11/10
Space Station 0.5pt win - lost
Fernando Torres 0.5pt win - 2nd
Poppanan 1pt win - lost
Sunshine Always 0.5pt win - lost
Woolfall Sovereign 0.25pt E/W - lost
Hector Spectre 0.25pt E/W - lost
Dontuwishitwereso 0.25pt win - WON 8/1
Royal Crest 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Luisa Tettrazini 0.25pt win - 4th

A/W Season 2009/10 Record (up to 2nd Jan)
Bets in 105 races
40 winners
Staked 89.75
Returns 98.63
Profit 8.88
Yield 10%

Bets proofed to the Racing Post

Jump Season 2009/10 - Results Update

2010-01-02T15:44:00.003Z

NH Season "proper" (Autumn onwards)

Is It Me 1pt win - WON 13/8
Poquelin 0.5pt E/W - WON 9/2
Fourty Acers 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 13/2
Seven Is My Number 0.25pt E/W - 4th 15/2
Poker Di Sivola 0.25pt E/W - lost
Killyglen 1pt win - 2nd
Fairyland 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 4/1
Gracechurch 0.5pt win - 2nd
Manyriverstocross 1pt win - WON 10/11
Peppertree Lane 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 9/1
Holoko Heights 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
Roll Along 1pt win - lost
Copper Bleu 0.5pt win - 2nd
Inchidaly Rock 0.5pt win - WON 4/6
Chapoturgeon 0.25pt E/W - Fell
Nothern Alliance 0.25pt E/W - lost
Harry Tricker 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 6/1
Ronaldo Des Mottes 0.25pt E/W - lost
Nomecheki 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Bormo 0.5pt win - 3rd
Zabeel Palace 0.5pt win - WON 9/4
Raise You Five 0.5pt win - WON 10/3
Whiteoak 0.5pt win - WON 15/8
Suntini 0.5pt win - WON 3/1
Beidh Tine Anseo 0.5pt win - lost
Orsippus 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 20/1
Ikorodu Road 0.5pt win - 2nd
Princeful 0.5pt win - lost
Troubletimestwo 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 16/1
Poker De Sivola 0.5pt E/W - lost
Pak Jack 0.25pt E/W - lost
Poquelin 0.5pt win - WON 9/2
Chapoturgeon 0.5pt win - 4th
Pop 0.25pt E/W - fell
My Petra 0.5pt E/W - void race
Takelli 0.5pt win - lost
Pacific Bay 0.5pt win - lost
Googoobarabajagal 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Mirodima 0.25pt E/W - lost
Madison Du Berlais (w/o Kauto Star) - WON 9/2
Little Josh 0.5pt E/W - fell
Know The Law 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 7/2
The Tother One 0.5pt E/W - lost
Coe 0.25pt E/W - lost
Carruthers 1pt win - WON 7/4
Whiteoak 0.25pt E/W - lost
Jass 0.5pt E/W - lost
Chapoturgeon 1pt E/W - lost
Can't Buy Time 0.25pt E/W - WON 11.5/1 (after R4)
Wolf Moon 0.5pt win - WON 10/3

Bets in 40 races
22 winners
Staked 33pts
Returns 42.81pts
Profit 9.81pts
Yield 30%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Still Fairly Selective Over The Sticks

2009-12-10T13:44:00.005Z

NH Season "proper" (Autumn onwards)

Is It Me 1pt win - WON 13/8
Poquelin 0.5pt E/W - WON 9/2
Fourty Acers 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 13/2
Seven Is My Number 0.25pt E/W - 4th 15/2
Poker Di Sivola 0.25pt E/W - lost
Killyglen 1pt win - 2nd
Fairyland 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 4/1
Gracechurch 0.5pt win - 2nd
Manyriverstocross 1pt win - WON 10/11
Peppertree Lane 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 9/1
Holoko Heights 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
Roll Along 1pt win - lost
Copper Bleu 0.5pt win - 2nd
Inchidaly Rock 0.5pt win - WON 4/6
Chapoturgeon 0.25pt E/W - Fell
Nothern Alliance 0.25pt E/W - lost
Harry Tricker 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 6/1
Ronaldo Des Mottes 0.25pt E/W - lost
Nomecheki 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Bormo 0.5pt win - 3rd
Zabeel Palace 0.5pt win - WON 9/4
Raise You Five 0.5pt win - WON 10/3
Whiteoak 0.5pt win - WON 15/8
Suntini 0.5pt win - WON 3/1
Beidh Tine Anseo 0.5pt win - lost
Orsippus 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 20/1
Ikorodu Road 0.5pt win - 2nd
Princeful 0.5pt win - lost
Troubletimestwo 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 16/1
Poker De Sivola 0.5pt E/W - lost
Pak Jack 0.25pt E/W - lost
Poquelin 0.5pt win - WON 9/2
Chapoturgeon 0.5pt win - 4th
Pop 0.25pt E/W - fell
My Petra 0.5pt E/W - void race

Bets in 28 races
17 winners
Staked 21pts
Returns 30.93pts
Profit 9.93pts
Yield 47%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

All-Good on the All-Weather

2009-12-10T13:04:00.004Z

All bets proofed to Racing Post

A/W 2009/10

November
Tangerine Tress 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1
Colourful Move 0.5pt win - 3rd
Eagle Nebula 0.5pt win - 2nd
Ebraam 2pts win - WON 0.56/1
Jewelled 0.25pt E/W - lost
Chosen One 0.25pt E/W - lost
Carbon Hoofprint 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ensnare 0.5pt win - 2nd
Decameron 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bountiful Bay 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bestowed 2pts win - 2nd
Crimson Ribbon 0.75pt win - lost
Critical Path 0.25pt win - lost
Black Eagle 1.5pts win - WON 5/6
Fourtowns Flyer 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 7/1
Insolence 0.75pt win - WON 5.2/1
Samaaha 0.5pt win - lost
Beat The Shower 0.25pt E/W - lost
Moon Money 0.25pt E/W - lost
Business Class 0.25pt E/W lost
Kings Colour 0.25pt E/W - WON 7/1
Farcombe 0.5pt win - lost
Moojeh 0.5pt win - lost
Red Suede Shoes 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
Dance The Star 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 7/1
Black Stocking 0.25pt E/W - lost
Castlecarra 0.25pt E/W - lost
Johnny Mudball 0.5pt win - 2nd
Prescription 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ebony Eyes 0.25pt win - WON 8/1
Key Regard 0.25pt win - lost
Maria Di Scozia 0.25pt E/W - lost
Istidaam 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1
Dajen 0.25pt E/W - lost
Sydneysider 0.25pt E/W - lost
Turbo Shandy 0.25pt win - lost
Summer Affair 0.25pt win - lost
Addienaa 0.25pt E/W - lost
Onceaponatime 0.5pt win - lost
Sutton Venny 0.25pt E/W - lost
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1
Stormy Summer 0.25pt E/W - lost
Wake Up Call 1pt win - 3rd
Kings Colour 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/3
Big Bay 1pt win - WON 7/2
Sunshine Always 0.5pt win - lost
Femme De Fer 0.5pt win - 3rd
Ability N Delivery 0.5pt win - 2nd
Ishiadancer 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Spinning Bailiwick 1pt win - WON 5/4
King's Salute 0.5pt win - WON 5/2
Bahamian Kid 0.25pt E/W - lost
Onceaponatime 0.25pt E/W - lost
Zuwaar 0.5pt win - lost
Davids City 0.25pt E/W - lost
Key Regard 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Catchapenny 0.25pt E/W - lost
Interchoice Star 0.25pt E/W -lost
Saphiras Fire 0.5pt win - 3rd
Kilmun 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bahamian Bliss 0.25pt E/W - lost
Tongalooma 0.25pt E/W - lost
Head First 0.25pt win - WON 16/1
Carragold 0.25pt win - lost
Tallest Peak 0.25pt E/W - lost

Bets in 45 races
17 winners
Staked 37.25
Returns 47.21
Profit 9.96pts
Yield 27%

December
Green Velvet 0.5pt win - 2nd
Divine Force 0.5pt win - WON 11/2
Red Suede Shoes 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 5/1
Cry Alot Boy 0.25pt E/W - lost
Madhal 0.25pt E/W - lost
Running Flush 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 15/2
Son Of Monsieur 0.25pt E/W - 4th 66/1
Shannon Golden 0.25pt E/W - 5th 25/1
Prohibition 0.5pt win - lost
L'Hirondelle 0.25pt E/W - 4th 16/1
Resentful Angel 1pt win - WON 5/2
Ensnare 1pt win - lost
Istiqdaam 1pt win - 2nd
Spinning Bailiwick 0.5pt win - WON 9/4
Fairplaytomyself 0.25pt E/W - lost
Rainiers Girld 0.25pt E/W - lost
Poppanan 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 6/1
Sestet 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Espy 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 14/1
Onceaponatime 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 11/1
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Nabeeda 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Trade Centre 1pt win - WON 15/8
Tiddliwinks 0.5pt win - WON 15/8
Resentful Angel 1pt win - 2nd
Nabeeda 0.75pt win - lost
Admiral Bond 0.25pt win - lost
Lady Rockfield 0.5pt win - lost
Istiqdaam 1.5pt win - WON 6/4
Dance The Star 1pt win - 3rd
Carragold 0.25pt E/W - lost
Action Girl 0.25pt E/W - lost
The Wee Chief 0.5pt E/W - lost
Space Station 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 8/1
Sutton Venny 0.25pt E/W - WON 20/1
Sunshine Always 0.25pt E/W - lost
Fernado Torres 1pt win - 3rd

Bets In 28 races
13 winners
Staked 24pts
Returns 27.12pts
Profit 3.12pts
Yield 13%

Grand National 2010

2009-12-10T01:05:00.001Z

Originally in Raceform Update 2nd December 2009...

It was fantastic to witness one of the great weight carrying performances on Saturday when Denman powered to his 2nd Hennessy win. However before Harry Findlay had finished his victory speech I was digesting what I had seen with the future in mind.

Unlike a so-called Grand National trial run a couple of weeks prior, the Hennessy has been a stepping-stone to some decent Grand National performances over the years. Of the previous twelve Hennessy fields, 23% (46) have gone on to take their chance at Aintree that season with nine (My Will, Snowy Morning, Royal Auclair, Whats Up Boys, Bindaree, Red Marauder, Call It A Day, Addington Boy, Suny Bay) finishing at least placed – and although I don’t wish to discuss unlucky Aintree horses too much, its a figure that would have been greater had Knowhere (2008), Hedgehunter (2004), Ad Hoc (2002), Beau (2001), Fiddling The Facts (1999) and Ciel De Brion (1998) stayed on their feet.

17 of those 46 Hennessy/National runners managed of a top-5 finish at Newbury, and they account for ten of the fifteen horses listed above.

It isn’t just statistics that lead me to the bet I’m about to advise, Saturday’s 3rd (Niche Market) and 5th (Gone To Lunch) strike me as ideal Grand National types.

Last season’s Irish Grand National winner, Niche Market, is still improving and put in a sterling effort to finish among the class acts last weekend. He jumps for fun and despite his stamina he’ll travel well enough to race front rank throughout at Aintree. He looks sure to go well if allowed to take his chance.

Gone To Lunch was 2nd in the Scottish Grand National back in April and although perhaps a little quirky he has a touch of class and is a horse I’ve always felt capable of a landing a major prize. Another impeccable jumper, has an abundance of stamina, but does occasionally switch off during races. However I have a feeling the National fences will keep him interested and bring out the best in Jeremy Scott’s gelding.

With the Grand National c&d bringing out expected improvement I believe Niche Market and Gone To Lunch are two of the few well-handicapped horses in the current ante-post list.

A Grand National wager this early will always carry a degree of risk but due to the tremendous value currently on offer for the pair, I believe it is correct to strike now and put every faith in connections to keep the duo fairly weighted and allow them their chance of glory. If so, then at the very least, we will be in “free bet” territory next spring.

Niche Market 1pt win – 25/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet
Gone To Lunch 1pt win – 40/1 Bet365

(ante-post bets on a scale of 1-10pts)

------------------------------------------------

I doubt there were many eyes on the Class 5 sprint Handicap at Lingfield at 3.35pm last Friday, however I believe it a race worthy of note.

It was the quickest 5f over c&d since Arganil’s Listed win back in March, and quickest in the grade since Sand Crooner’s win back in January 2008. The 1-2-3 that day won 7 handicaps (from 18 starts) over the next three months and there is every reason to expect similar success from this race.

The front two, Ediths Boy and Ability N Delivery, went very hard from the front and the pair deserve plenty of credit for maintaining the frantic gallop, and their positions, all the way to the line. Femme De Fer did best of those from off the pace, finishing with a flourish back in 3rd.

It appears very strong form for the grade and I’ll be surprised if Ability N Delivery and Femme De Fer do not gain compensation in similar company soon.

------------------------------------------------

A Vacant Belt Come March?

2009-11-25T00:49:00.003Z

Despite what the market currently tells us, due to the leading protagonists vulnerabilities, this season's Queen Mother Champion Chase could well be up for grabs.

Master Minded has disappointed at home as well as on the course recently, and with bone scans planned we must look for a viable alternative.

Current 2nd favourite Big Zeb is classy enough but with four falls from eleven chase starts to date, a clear round at Cheltenham is far from certain. If someone will lay me "fall no-bet" I'll get involved.

I was lucky enough to back Well Chief ante-post for the Arkle at 33/1. His legs were not as brittle back then, and as brilliant as he is around Cheltenham, he is no longer an ante-post proposition. I'll wait to see what condition he is come the day before I include him in any calculations.

It's a possibility these three may not be in the race with a circuit to run on that Wednesday in March, so with most firms going double-figures bar, there must be some risk-free ante-post value around. Risk-free in the sense that bigger priced selections backed now will be a similar price if the big guns line up, but will be a fraction of the price if any of the A-Team fail in make it.

Voy Por Ustedes, Crackaway Jack and Schindlers Hunt will almost certainly run in more suitable races so are far from ideal ante-post possibilities.

Last season's Arkle 1-2, Forpadydeplasterer and Kalahari King, don't interest me the prices. I still believe both will need further to be at their best and it's no surprise to see them a similar price for the Ryanair Chase.

Barker's (who?) 12/1 quote looks very stingy indeed. It's solely based on his two improved runs last April, the last of which a 15l victory over Forpadydeplaster. In my opinion this one time 90-odd handicap hurdler hasn't the class to be a Champion Chaser and his odds are at least a third of what they should be.

It leaves me with an obvious and perhaps uninspiring selection in Petit Robin. A 9l third at 12/1 last season on only his fourth chase start, he ran better than the formline suggest when a well-beaten 7th on his final start 2m4f Melling Chase at Aintree.

After Cheltenham his stable spoke of step ups in trip to "avoid the winner (Master Minded)". Given the sudden uncertainty regarding Master Minded it wouldn't surprise me if connections re-nag on that idea and had another crack at the 2m prize.

His left-handed form is very decent and with another year behind him he may not put in his one blunder per race - if that is the case there is every reason to believe he can improve on his 3rd last year, even if class acts do show up. If they don't it leaves the door wide open and only a just a reproduction of last year's effort will see him fight out the finish.

A speculative E/W at Ladbrokes and William Hill's 33/1 is in order.

STOP PRESS - AN UPDATE!!!

2009-11-24T14:23:00.005Z

It's been some time since I updated this blog. Time constraints was one reason but I was also waiting for some news before making a decision with this blog.

This blog will now be just an update of results. My thoughts and articles can soon be found on a weekly basis in Raceform Update.

The flat season is now over and the line has performed very well in the difficult period since.

Below is a record of bets so far in the A/W season, as well as all NH bets so far this autumn.

A/W 2009/10
Tangerine Tress 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1
Colourful Move 0.5pt win - 3rd
Eagle Nebula 0.5pt win - 2nd
Ebraam 2pts win - WON 0.56/1
Jewelled 0.25pt E/W - lost
Chosen One 0.25pt E/W - lost
Carbon Hoofprint 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ensnare 0.5pt win - 2nd
Decameron 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bountiful Bay 0.25pt E/W - lost
Bestowed 2pts win - 2nd
Crimson Ribbon 0.75pt win - lost
Critical Path 0.25pt win - lost
Black Eagle 1.5pts win - WON 5/6
Fourtowns Flyer 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 7/1
Insolence 0.75pt win - WON 5.2/1
Samaaha 0.5pt win - lost
Beat The Shower 0.25pt E/W - lost
Moon Money 0.25pt E/W - lost
Business Class 0.25pt E/W lost
Kings Colour 0.25pt E/W - WON 7/1
Farcombe 0.5pt win - lost
Moojeh 0.5pt win - lost
Red Suede Shoes 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
Dance The Star 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 7/1
Black Stocking 0.25pt E/W - lost
Castlecarra 0.25pt E/W - lost
Johnny Mudball 0.5pt win - 2nd
Prescription 0.25pt E/W - lost
Ebony Eyes 0.25pt win - WON 8/1
Key Regard 0.25pt win - lost
Maria Di Scozia 0.25pt E/W - lost
Istidaam 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1
Dajen 0.25pt E/W - lost
Sydneysider 0.25pt E/W - lost
Turbo Shandy 0.25pt win - lost
Summer Affair 0.25pt win - lost
Addienaa 0.25pt E/W - lost
Onceaponatime 0.5pt win - lost
Sutton Venny 0.25pt E/W - lost
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1
Stormy Summer 0.25pt E/W - lost

Bets in 31 races
11 winners
Staked 24.75pts
Returns 30.04pts
Profit 5.29pts
Yield 21%

NH Season "proper" (Autumn onwards)
Is It Me 1pt win - WON 13/8
Poquelin 0.5pt E/W - WON 9/2
Fourty Acers 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 13/2
Seven Is My Number 0.25pt E/W - 4th 15/2
Poker Di Sivola 0.25pt E/W - lost
Killyglen 1pt win - 2nd
Fairyland 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 4/1
Gracechurch 0.5pt win - 2nd
Manyriverstocross 1pt win - WON 10/11
Peppertree Lane 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 9/1
Holoko Heights 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
Roll Along 1pt win - lost
Copper Bleu 0.5pt win - 2nd
Inchidaly Rock 0.5pt win - WON 4/6
Chapoturgeon 0.25pt E/W - Fell
Nothern Alliance 0.25pt E/W - lost
Harry Tricker 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 6/1
Ronaldo Des Mottes 0.25pt E/W - lost
Nomecheki 0.5pt win - WON 7/1
Bormo 0.5pt win - 3rd
Zabeel Palace 0.5pt win - WON 9/4
Raise You Five 0.5pt win - WON 10/3
Whiteoak 0.5pt win - WON 15/8
Suntini 0.5pt win - WON 3/1

Bets in 20 races
15 winners
Staked 15.5pts
Returns 26.93pts
Profit 11.43pts
Yield 74%

Another September Update

2009-09-17T23:36:00.002+01:00

It's been a fantastic month so far which included a 10-day winning run. Been very busy once again so here is an update in one post.

11th September
Brave Prospector 0.25pt E/W - WON 16/1
Lowther 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Deserk Kiss 0.5pt win - WON 13/2 (adv) DISQUALIFIED
Truly Asia 0.5pt win - 3rd
Life's Challenge 1pt win - 3rd
Espy 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 6/1 (adv)
Galliotto 0.5pt win - unplaced

12th September
Mustakmil 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Chichen Daawe 1pt win - WON 3/1
Santo Padra 0.25pt E/W - WON 18/1 (adv)
Orpsie Boy 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

13th September
Kerrys Requiem 0.5pt E/W - 5th
Act Of Kalanisi 0.5pt win - 6th
Dance The Star 0.5pt win - 4th
Carbon Hoofprint 0.25pt E/W - 6th
Lenny Bee 1pt win 3rd

14th September
Ms Sophie Eleanor 1pt win - unplaced
Hightime Heroine 1pt win - 2nd

15th September
Theocritus 1pt win - 3rd
No Wonga 0.5pt E/W - WON 15/2

16th September
Mutawarath 0.5pt win - unplaced
Militarist 0.5pt win - unplaced
Pipers Piping 0.25pt E/W - 5th

17th September
She's In The Money 0.5pt win - WON 6/1
Leonid Glow 0.5pt win - 2nd
Eastern Hills 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Staked: 60.25pts
Returned: 88.68pts
Profit: 28.43pts
Yield: 47%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Thursday 10th September

2009-09-11T00:33:00.002+01:00

Epsom
3.55
Sahaall 0.5pt win - unplaced

4.30
Kings Colour 0.5pt win - WON 7/2 (adv)

Doncaster
5.25
Ingleby Lady 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Kempton
6.35
Battlemaiden 1pt win - 2nd

Tipperary
6.55
Natural High 1pt win - WON 9/10

Staked: 41.75pts
Returned: 61.81pts
Profit: 20.06pts
Yield: 48%

Wednesday 9th September

2009-09-10T01:41:00.002+01:00

Doncaster
2.30
Ransom Note 1pt win - unplaced

4.20
Russian Jar 1pt win - unplaced

Epsom
3.25
Funday 1pt win - WON 4/1

3.55
Mohathaab 0.5pt win - unplaced

Kempton
8.50
Ottoman Empire 0.5pt win - WON 6/4 (adv)

Staked: 38.25pts
Returned: 57.66pts
Profit: 19.41pts
Yield: 51%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Tuesday 8th September

2009-09-09T15:09:00.002+01:00

Goodwood
2.35
Zahoo 1pt win - 3rd

4.20
Charger 0.5pt win - 4th

Lingfield
5.40
Satefisio 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

Staked: 34.25pts
Returned: 51.41pts
Profit: 17.16pts
Yield: 50%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

September Catch Up

2009-09-07T16:01:00.005+01:00

I've been very busy over the past week or so and as a result I've not been able to keep up to date with my blog entries.

Will get up to date for September in this one post, it's been a promising start...

1st September
2.20 Ripon
Whirlijig 2pts win - 3rd

3.30 Ripon
Hippolytus 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Knight's Victory 0.5pt win - unplaced

4.20 Leicester
Dandy Man 2pts win - WON Evs (adv)

2nd September
3.50 Lingfield
Azharia 1pt E/W - unplaced

4.00 Brighton
Sunceleb 0.5pt win - unplaced

7.50 Kempton
Sunshine Always 1pt win - WON 7/4 (adv)
Songful 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

3rd September
3.05 Redcar
Tangerine Trees 1pt win - unplaced

4.35 Epsom
Air Maze 1pt win - 2nd

5.00 Salisbury
Triple Dream 2pts win - WON 9/4 (adv)

5.35 Salisbury
Covert Ambition 1pt win - unplaced

4th September
2.20 Lingfield
Rare Malt 1pt win - 2nd

4.50 Lingfield
Mutamaashi 1pt E/W - 2nd 9/2 (adv)

5.20 Lingfield
Brief Look 2pts win - WON 10/11 (adv)
Kansai Spirit 0.25pt win - unplaced

7.50 Kempton
Eolith 1pt win - WON 9/4 (adv)

5th September
3.10 Kempton
Fancy Footsteps 0.5pt win - 4th
Set The Trend 0.5pt win - unplaced

4.20 Kempton
Dhaawiah 1pt win - unplaced
Mohtashem 0.5pt win - unplaced

4.50 Kempton
Danse On Wood 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

5.25 Kempton
Tinaar 0.5pt E/W - WON 6/1 (adv)

6.20 Wolverhampton
Satwa Star 1.5pts win - 4th
Helieorbea 0.5pt win - unplaced

9.20 Wolverhampton
Cheers For Thea 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1 (adv)

6th September
3.45 York
Eton Rifles 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 13/2 (adv)

4.50 York
Without Prejudice 0.5pt E/W - WON 7/1 (adv)

5.20
Resentful Angel 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

7th September
3.00 Newcastle
Mayoman 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1 (adv)

4.20 Folkstone
Ordoney 1pt win - WON 2/1

5.00 Newcastle
The Quiet Genius 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 20/1 (adv)

Staked: 31.75pts
Returned: 47.41pts
Profit: 15.66pts
Yield: 49%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Saturday 22nd August

2009-08-25T16:42:00.002+01:00

Bath
6.15
Carbon Hoofprint 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 9/2 (adv)

Chester
2.55
Sabotage 1pt win - 3rd

5.10
Zuwaar 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 5/1 (adv)

Ripon
4.35
Thebes 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

5.05
Off Chance 1pt win - WON 13/8
Fernando Torres 0.25pt win - 6th

Sandown
3.50
Kerrys Requiem 0.25pt E/W - 8th

Friday 21st August

2009-08-22T13:07:00.002+01:00

Sandown
2.40
Chandika 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 10/1

York
4.40
Swingkeel 2pts win - WON 7/2 (adv)
Saga De Tercey 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 10/1

Salisbury
7.30
Aquisition 0.5pt win - WON 10/3

Thursday 20th August

2009-08-22T13:04:00.002+01:00

York
2.15
Puff 0.5pt E/W - 4th

2.50
Acrostic 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 5/1
Loveloce 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.40
Lucky Leigh 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
La Zamora 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Favourite Girl 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Chepstow
5.30
Cadeaux Fax 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Wednesday 19th August

2009-08-19T22:20:00.003+01:00

York
1.45
Whispering Gallery 0.5pt win - WON 5/1 (adv)
Coin Of The Realm 0.5pt win - unplaced
Dazzling Light 0.5pt win - unplaced

3.25
Precision Break 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

4.40
Silver Games 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1 (adv)

Tuesday 18th August

2009-08-19T22:19:00.001+01:00

York
2.15
Elusive Pimpernel 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

Monday 17th August

2009-08-19T22:12:00.002+01:00

Wolverhampton
2.45
Cheers For Thea 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 7/1 (adv)

3.15
Prescription 1.5pts win - 2nd

Kempton
3.30
Penitent 0.5pt win - 2nd

5.00
Fancy Footsteps 1pt win - WON 3/1 (adv)

Windsor
7.05
Desert Kiss 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Toolendithaar 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

8.05
Shared Moment 0.25pt E/W - 6th

Yarmouth
6.50
Gun For Sale 0.5pt E/W - 4th

7.50
Penolva 0.5pt win - 3rd

Sunday 16th August

2009-08-16T21:12:00.003+01:00

Bath
4.00
Chatanoogachoochoo 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Hillside Lassie 0.5pt win - unplaced

5.00
Triple Dream 1pt win - WON 7/1 (adv) *

*5.95/1 after R4

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Saturday 15th August

2009-08-16T21:10:00.001+01:00

Ripon
2.45
Cwm Rhondda 0.5pt win - 4th

Newmarket
5.10
Apotheosis 0.5pt E/W - 6th

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Friday 14th August

2009-08-14T14:59:00.002+01:00

Nottingham
2.35
High Achieved 1pt win - 3rd

3.45
Burza 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Gaselee 0.25pt E/W - 4th

4.45
Twist Again 0.75pt E/W - WON 13/2 (adv)
The Quiet Genius 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Newcastle
2.45
Off Chance 1pt win - WON 5/2

Newbury
5.10
Candy Rose 0.5pt E/W - 6th

Newmarket
7.00
Seasonal Cross 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 11/1 (adv)
Devinius 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Catterick
8.20
Mayoman 0.25pt E/W - 4th

Thursday 13th August

2009-08-13T18:14:00.007+01:00

Salisbury
2.30
Many A Slip 0.5pt E/W - WON 10/1 (adv)
City Of Rome 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Arkellion 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Sandown
3.25
Thief Of Time 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Wellington Square 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.00
Mezenah 2pts win - WON 4/5 (adv)

Newcastle
6.30
She's In The Money 0.5pt win - WON 4/1

8.30
Whipma Whopma Gate 0.25pt E/W - 6th

Chepstow
7.50
Rosie Two 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Two Turtle Doves 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Migilori 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Wednesday 12th August

2009-08-13T18:11:00.002+01:00

Salisbury
4.05
Sterling Sound 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 40/1 (adv)

5.10
Akabar 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Yarmouth
4.30
Broughton's Silk 1pt win - 6th
Blue Turk 0.5pt win - 7th

Sandown
7.10
Militarist 0.5pt E/W - 4th

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Tuesday 11th August

2009-08-12T01:32:00.002+01:00

Lingfield
4.00
Prescription 1pt win - WON 5/2 (adv)

5.00
Red Suede Shoes 0.5pt win - 3rd
Rockabout 0.5pt win - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Monday 10th August

2009-08-10T20:41:00.004+01:00

Wolverhampton
3.30
Bahamian Music 1pt win - WON 11/4 (adv)

Thirsk
6.30
Funky Munky 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1 (adv)

8.30
Devil You Know 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Windsor
6.50
Clientele 1pt win - 7th
Aflaam 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 16/1

7.50
Beauchamp Xerxes 3pts win (MAX) - WON 11/8 (adv)

8.20
Bolanderi 0.5pt E/W - 4th 18/1 (adv)
Little Prudence 0.25pt E/W - 5th 20/1

Sunday 9th August

2009-08-09T22:10:00.002+01:00

Windsor
2.30
Global Village 1pt win - 3rd

5.00
Chandika 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 11/2 (adv)

Redcar
3.10
Yashkur 0.5pt win - unplaced
Chichen Dawwe 0.5pt win - 7th

3.40
Ingleby Lady 2pts win - WON 7/4 (adv)

Leicester
4.50
Focail Eile 1pt win - WON 5/2

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Saturday 8th August

2009-08-09T22:05:00.004+01:00

Haydock
2.10
Opus Maximus 1pt win - 3rd
Lowther 1pt win - unplaced

3.15
Sweet Lightning 1pt E/W - unplaced

Newmarket (July)
2.25
Whispering Gallery 1pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

3.35
Taqdeyr 1pt E/W - unplaced
Eastern Hills 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

5.10
Kindest 1pt win - 2nd
So Blissful 0.5pt win - 5th

Redcar
3.10
Without Prejudice 1pt win - 4th

Lingfield
8.10
Satwa Street 0.5pt E/W - 5th

Friday 7th August

2009-08-09T22:05:00.001+01:00

Haydock
5.50
Beau Fighter 1pt win - 4th

Thursday 6th August

2009-08-08T15:37:00.002+01:00

Haydock
3.40
Mull Of Killough 1pt win - 2nd

4.10
Wooshska 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Yarmouth
4.50
Twist Again 1pt win - 2nd
Galletto 1pt win - 3rd

Bath
8.05
Carbon Hoofprint 2pts win - WON 7/4

Sandown
7.55
Almuktahem 1pt win - 3rd

8.25
Bomber Brown 0.5pt win - 3rd
Kidlate 0.5pt win - 5th

Wednesday 5th August

2009-08-08T15:36:00.001+01:00

Brighton
4.00
Uncle Fred 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Burns Night 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Newcastle
4.50
Carragold 0.5pt E/W - 5th

5.20
Leonid Glow 0.5pt win - 5th
Fortunate Flame 0.5pt win - unplaced

Kempton
6.05
Dance The Star 2pts win - 2nd

6.35
One Oi 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Candy Rose 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Yarmouth
5.50
Global Village 1pt win - 4th
Many Welcomes 0.5pt win - 2nd

7.20
Big Boom 1.5pt win - 4th

Tuesday 4th August

2009-08-04T16:31:00.003+01:00

Catterick
3.20
Saga De Tercey 1.5pt win - WON 13/8
That'll Do Nicely 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

3.50
Chosen One 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Bedloe's Island 0.5pt win - 4th
Istiqdaam 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Monday 3rd August

2009-08-04T12:22:00.003+01:00

Ripon
3.15
Crime Writer 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

4.45
Promise Maker 0.5pt E/W - 7th

Windsor
7.00
Espy 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 12/1
Triple Dream 0.5pt E/W - 4th 20/1

7.30
Prince Of Johanne 1pt win - WON 13/8

Carlisle
8.15
Cheers For Thea 0.5pt E/W - 4th
Gulnaz 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

8.45
Scotch And Soda 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Two Turtle Doves 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 16/1

Sunday 2nd August

2009-08-04T12:19:00.003+01:00

Chester
4.05
Opus Maximus 0.5pt E/W - 4th

4.35
King Fingal 1pt win - 5th
I'm In The Pink 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 16/1 (adv)

Newbury
5.00
Air Maze 1pt win - 3rd
Bow To No One 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Saturday 1st August

2009-08-04T11:58:00.003+01:00

Doncaster
2.05
Chris's Jem 0.5pt win - unplaced

Goodwood
3.40
Markab 0.25pt E/W - 4th 10/1 (adv)
Brave Prospector 0.25pt E/W - 7th 40/1 (adv)
Orpsie Boy 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Newmarket (July)
2.45
Invincible Isle 0.5pt E/W - 5th

3.20
Laaheb 1.5pt win - 2nd

Thirsk
3.30
Motashem 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Hamilton
7.40
Berridale 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

8.10
Evan 1pt win - 3rd

9.10
Hippolytus 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 13/2 (adv)

Lingfield
5.55
Resentful Angel 0.5pt win - 3rd 11/2
Cardinal 0.5pt win - 4th 9/2

Prophetable Statistics #2

2009-08-03T12:13:00.002+01:00

#2 Mark Johnston - 3yo's stepped up markedly in trip

3yo's upped in trip by 3f or more in 2009...

46% (13/28) won
71% (20/28) placed at least
£3152 profit to £100 level stakes
113% level stakes yield

Topolski WON 8/1
Straits of Hormuz WON 15/2
Holberg WON 7/1
Becausewecan WON 9/2
Perpetually WON 4/1
Rupestrian WON 11/4
Holberg WON 5/2
Parnethon WON 5/2
Fin Vin De Leu WON 9/4
Act Of Kalinisi WON 2/1
Rafaam WON 7/4
Yourgunnabelucky WON 11/10
Gilded Age WON 4/6
Smooth Sovereign 2nd 8/1
Quai D'Orsay 2nd 7/1 (beaten 0.5l)
Longboat Key 2nd 11/2 (btn nk)
Royal Society 2nd 4/1
Chilly Filly 2nd 11/4
Alanbrooke 2nd 6/4 (btn hd)
Fin Vin De Leu 3rd
Leulaheulahlay unplaced
Kimberley Downs unplaced
Sabotage unplaced
Tarzan unplaced
Whispering Gallery unplaced
Atabaas Allure unplaced
Step Fast unplaced
Kasaa Ed unplaced

Friday 31st July

2009-08-02T11:56:00.003+01:00

Goodwood
3.25
Lovelace 0.25pt win - 5th
Acrostic 0.25pt win - 6th
Tartan Gigha 0.25pt win - unplaced

5.45
La Zamora 0.25pt win - 4th
Green Beret 0.25pt win - 3rd

Bath
7.40
Dangerous Midge 0.5pt win - 3rd
Voortrekker 0.5pt win - unplaced

8.15
Desert Kiss 0.5pt win - 2nd
So Blissful 0.25pt win - 7th

Newmarket
8.05
Without Prejudice 0.25pt win - WON 13/2
Aflaam 0.25pt win - 5th
Orlando's Tale 0.25pt win - unplaced

Thursday 30th July

2009-08-02T11:55:00.002+01:00

Goodwood
4.35
Akhanenten 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 25/1 (adv)

Epsom
7.30
Polemica 0.25pt E/W - 7th

Wednesday 29th July

2009-07-29T20:38:00.003+01:00

Goodwood
2.10
Swingkeel 1pt E/W - 3rd 7/1 (adv)
Always Bold 0.5pt E/W - 7th

2.45
Xtenstion 1pt win - WON 4/1 (adv)

4.00
Sabotage 0.25pt E/W - 8th

5.10
Alsace Lorraine 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

Redcar
5.00
King Pin 0.5pt E/W - 7th
Business Class 0.25pt E/W - 9th

5.35
Half A Crown 0.5pt E/W - 8th

Leicester
7.10
Cry Alot Boy 0.25pt E/W - WON 14/1 (adv)

8.15
Big Boom 1pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Tuesday 28th July

2009-07-29T20:22:00.004+01:00

Goodwood
2.10
Sweet Lightning 1pt win - 2nd
Royal Destination 1pt win - 3rd
William Blake 0.5pt win - 4th

4.35
Precision Break 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 20/1

5.10
Wellington Square 1pt E/W - 7th

Beverley
5.30
Whipma Whopma Gate 1pt E/W - 8th
Bestowed 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Monday 27th July

2009-07-28T11:57:00.002+01:00

Yarmouth
2.30
Right Rave 0.5pt E/W - WON 9/2 (adv)

5.00
Alvee 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

5.30
Whotsit 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 11/1

Southwell
5.15
Appelouse 0.5pt E/W - WON 8/1

Windsor
6.40
Falcon Rock 0.5pt win - WON 7/2 (adv)
Apotheosis 0.5pt win - 3rd

Bets proofed to Racing Post

Sunday 26th July

2009-07-28T11:53:00.003+01:00

Ascot
3.25
Reject 0.5pt E/W - 8th
New Leyf 0.25pt E/W - 5th

4.35
Sabotage 0.75pt E/W - 3rd 7/1 (adv)
Hevelius 0.75pt E/W - 8th

Carlisle
2.25
Cheyenne Red 1pt win - 2nd
Moneysupermarket 0.25pt E/W - 6th

3.35
Saga De Tercey 1pt win - 2nd

Bets proofed to Racing Post

Wokingham Working Out Well

2009-07-26T22:43:00.004+01:00

It may seem I'm stating the obvious when suggesting the Wokingham is decent form - it's a Royal Ascot handicap after all. However even by it's own standards this year's race is working out extremely well.

Those involved have run 26 times since recording 6 wins, and 4 places - a decent return given the competitive nature of the races these sprinters contest.

High Standing - won G3 next time out
Asset - no runs
Rock Of Rochelle - 6th (of 7) in G3 next time out
Markab - no runs
Prohibit - no runs
Advanced - no runs
Striking Spirit - won C3 handicap NTO
Joseph Henry - beaten 1.75l in Premier handicap (Curragh) NTO, then placed in the Bunbury Cup
Orpsie Boy - good effort (9th) NTO in Bunbury Cup
Knot In Wood - won G3 NTO, then beaten 1l in C2 handicap, then won C2 handicap
Van Bossed - well beaten twice since
Jimmy Styles - unlucky in C2 handicap NTO
Tamagin - won C2 handicap since, then 2nd in C2 handicap
Brave Prospector - no runs
Osiris Way - well beaten NTO
Nota Bene - good effort (8th) in Bunbury Cup NTO, then won C3 conds stakes
Baby Strange - beaten NTO
Soap Wars - no runs
Beaver Patrol - beaten in Bunbury Cup NTO (50/1)
Pearly Way - well beaten NTO
Sohraab - Big run (close 4th) in Listed race NTO
Evens And Odds - no runs
Carcinetto - well beaten NTO (50/1)
Exclamation - no runs
Zidane - no runs
Genki - 2nd in C2 handicap NTO, then placed in Abu Dhabi International

Of the 17 that have run since, 11 have franked the form, 3 in pattern company.

With so many runners putting in monster performances in the race, especially those who raced on the near side or those drawn low who lost ground switching to the far side, the formline looks sure to throw up more winners and will be key in studying for the remaining big sprint handicaps of 2009.

Saturday 25th July

2009-07-26T20:50:00.003+01:00

Ascot
3.15
Loch Linnhe 1pt E/W - unplaced

3.50
Redford 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 16/1 (adv ante-post)
Redford 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 12/1 (adv)
Taqdeyr 0.25pt E/W - 6th

5.35
Senses 0.5pt win - unplaced
Interdiamonds 0.5pt win - unplaced

Newcastle
4.45
Eton Rifles 1pt E/W - 2nd 4/1 (adv)

Lingfield
6.15
Warrior Conquest 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Salisbury
8.40
Santefisio 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 9/4

Friday 24th July

2009-07-26T19:02:00.002+01:00

Ascot
3.50
Balaagha 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 12/1 (adv)

4.25
Hendersyde 1pt win - unplaced

5.00
William Blake 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 8/1 (adv)

Thirsk
3.05
Shared Moment 0.5pt E/W - 5th
Winrob 0.25pt E/W - WON 16/1 (adv)

Newmarket (July)
8.10
Kensington Oval 1.5pt win - 3rd

8.45
Indian Violet 0.25pt E/W - 4th
Dontuwishitwereso 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Thursday 23rd July

2009-07-24T13:22:00.007+01:00

Bath
4.40
Rosie Two 0.5pt E/W - 6th
Tarqua 0.25pt E/W - 8th

5.10
Air Maze 1pt win - WON 7/4

Doncaster
6.10
Sunley Sovereign 0.5pt E/W - 4th 16/1 (adv)

7.50
Prescription 1pt win - 6th

8.25
Whirlijig 0.25pt E/W - 8th

Sandown
2.45
Chris's Jem 0.25pt E/W - 5th

Folkstone
6.25
Royal Bloom 1pt win - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Air Maze looked well treated and took the 5.10 at Bath after a lay-off. More success looks certain.

Prescription travelled well in the 7.50 at Doncaster before blowing up late on. This was her first start for some time and she was weak in the betting beforehand. She looked as though she needed the run and being obviously well treated looks sure to fare better in the future.

In the 8.25, Whirlijig showed enough ability to suggest he can be competitive in handicaps in the near future.

Chris's Jem was travelling well before she repeatedly denied a clear run in the 2.45 at Sandown - this run is best ignored.

Abu Dhabi International Stakes - Ascot 25th July

2009-07-24T13:22:00.005+01:00

Unsurprisingly the Abu Dhabi International, formally the Tote/Totesport International Handicap, has been won by some decent in recent years. Five of the last ten winners won of a mark in the 100's and nine had either been contesting, or went on to contest Group races. It will be a simialr story for the winner of this year's renewal.

Of big three 7f handicaps this season (Victoria Cup, Buckingham Palace Stakes, Bunbury Cup) two have been a disappoinment. The Victoria Cup was of a relatively poor standard and the Bunbury Cup was ran at a farcical pace, as the result the form of both races is questionable - although seeing as the winners of both races (Swift Gift and Plum Pudding) are not taking their chance here that knowledge isn't as useful as it might have been.

Unlike the Bunbury Cup, where Plum Pudding was gifted an uncontested lead, a study of the projected pace suggests a decent gallop.

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With only 22 lining up and the stalls positioned in the centre it's probable the field will come down the middle in one group, negating any draw bias. This is good news for those drawn high as they may be disadvantaged if the field were to split.

With five prominent races, Signor Peltro, Crackdown, Dianes Choice, Taqdeyr and Thebes drawn in stalls 5 to 10 those drawn would enjoy a nice lead. There is just one prominent racer drawn high - Roaring Forte is stall 17. Horatio Carter in the 19 box likes to run up with the pace but will only track whatever pace is in front, he will not be forcing. We don't know a great deal about Captain Brilliance (15), he has been held up in the past but was fairly prominent when 2nd in the Bunbury, that maneuver may just have been Johnny Murtagh adapting to the slow pace.

Wherever they go the gallop is certain to be strong and those held up off the pace look sure to benefit.

One that fits that bill is the Michael Bell trained Redford. The 100 rated 4yo, already dabbling in pattern company, looks a typical winner of this event. 6th in this last year (as 3yo), he has been in typically consistent form this year. After a 6f pipe-opener in May he was a solid 3rd in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot on ground possibly too quick. Then LTO he was 6th behind Plum Pudding (Captain Brilliance 2nd, Racer Forever 5th) in the Bunbury, again the ground would have been quicker than ideal and given the snail-like pace it was a monster effort to get so close given his running style.

I believe him to be equally as effective over 7f or a mile so the stiff 7f here, at a decent clip, should prove ideal. With ticks in plenty of boxes, plus the added bonus of many of the originally leading protagonists doubly entered here and Goodwood, I decided to go in early with Redford and advised him ante-post at 16/1 (E/W) last week.

With today's rain taking the sting out of the ground and with the draw confirming he will definitely be assured a lead I see no reason to change my mind. In fact I may go in again at the 12/1 with Stan James.

There are obvious dangers...

Captain Brilliance - another who would not have been suited tracking a slow pace at Newmarket but run well despite that. Very much an unknown quantity but I can't help but think he is priced up based on what Forgotten Voice (a stablemate with a similar profile), did earlier this season.

Roaring Forte - always been highly regarded, broke the juvenile record at Lingfield despite easing down. Has no experience of big fields and with the (albeit small) worry of front-running alone on the fair side, he is short enough.

Secret Society - progressing at a rate of knots and looks the pick of the 3yo's and those at the foot of the weights.

Racer Forever - closely weighted with Redford on Ascot and Newmarket form. Also hindered by how the race was run at Newmarket and if I'm right about Redford he should be too far behind.

Taqdeyr - Steadily improving and not disgraced when upped in class over 7f recently. Still weighted to be competitive. At 18/1 with Bet365 he is interesting me most as the potential 2nd selection.

Wednesday 22nd July

2009-07-23T11:44:00.010+01:00

Lingfield
3.30
Bahamian Bliss 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.00
Summer Rose 0.5pt win - unplaced

Chepstow
4.20
First Swallow 1pt win - unplaced
Gioaccino 0.5pt win - unplaced

Sandown
6.00
Ensnare 0.5pt win - unplaced

7.40
Crime Writer 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Very poor racing. The biggest disappointment being First Swallow who was well beaten in the 4.20 at Catterick. Had previously shaped as if coming to hand so I was surprised to see connections apply the headgear for this. He clearly resented them and his progress has been temporarily halted.

Tuesday 21st July

2009-07-23T11:44:00.009+01:00

Ffos Las
4.00
Charity Belle 1pt win - 2nd

4.30
Cape Melody 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 7/1 (adv)

5.30
Sir Boss 1pt win - WON 3/1 (adv)

Yarmouth
3.15
Carpe Marien 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Twist Again 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 22/1

5.45
Big Boom 1pt E/W - 2nd 11/2 (adv)

All bets proofed to Racing Post

21st July

I was fairly confident about the bets I had lined up for the new Ffos Las and Yarmouth.

The day started brightly enough with the ridiculously over priced (33/1 => 22/1) Twist Again getting a place in the 3.15 at Yarmouth. Was travelling well before Jimmy Quinn lost his position but ran on well into 3rd place after the race had been won. Must surely find a race soon.

Big Boom, a recent 50/1 2nd for us, looked to hold a major chance in the finale at Yarmouth. Well handicapped, well drawn on going that suited I couldn't see this horse being outside the 1-2-3-4 and he was E/W banker material. Could only finish 2nd however but another solid performance and is obviously well treated.

At Ffos Las, Charity Belle looked all over the winner in the 4.00 but was caught inside the last by Hollow Green. Given the weight she conceded to the winner she perhaps got there a little too soon under Jimmy Fortune. Any horse that can cruise three clear in the last should win, usually it's just a case of an ill-judged ride. Compensation awaits.

Sir Boss took the 5.30 very comfortably.

Monday 20th July

2009-07-23T11:44:00.006+01:00

Ayr
2.30
Go Alone 1pt win - 4th

Yarmouth
3.45
Bonne 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.15
Songful 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Beverley
7.00
Moonage Daydream 0.25pt E/W - WON 12/1

8.30
Burns Night 2pts win - 4th

Windsor
8.50
Bolanderi 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 7/1

Sunday 19th July

2009-07-23T11:43:00.002+01:00

Stratford
2.40
Bold Policy 0.25pt E/W - 6th
General Mayo 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Saturday 18th July

2009-07-18T22:28:00.003+01:00

Newbury
2.50
Cosmopoliton 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
Ainia 0.5pt win - 6th

Newmarket (July)
3.05
Sunshine Always 1pt win - 2nd

Ripon
5.10
Cardinal 0.5pt win - 2nd
Minnola 0.5pt win - 3rd

Haydock
6.40
Lady Luachmhar 1.25pt win - WON Evs
Highkingofireland 0.25pt win - 4th

8.40
Dolly Penrose 1pt win - WON 11/4 (adv)
Princess Rainbow 0.5pt win - 3rd

9.10
Kindest 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)
Black River Falls 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Lingfield
6.55
Mr Rio 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Comsopoliton was game in victory in the 2.50 Newbury.

Sunshine Always travelled well in the 3.05 at Newmarket but again could only finish 2nd. He must find a handicap soon.

Cardinal looked an unlucky loser in the Ripon maiden handicap at 5.10. Forced to switch from an unfavourable low draw he finished with a flourish beaten a neck from what looked like an impossible position a furlong out.

Lady Luachmhar took advantate of a lenient handicap mark by taking the 6.40 at Haydock. There should be more to come from her.

I'd clearly been waiting a long time for Dolly Penrose to get her ground.

For the first time this season she had the soft going he needs and done the business. She doesn't find a great deal off the bridle so was value for more than the head winning margin.

Kindest won well in the 9.10 at Haydock. He travelled well and quickened well, there should be more to come.

Friday 17th July

2009-07-18T22:18:00.003+01:00

Haydock
4.05
Medicean Man 0.5pt win - 3rd
Lochan Mor 0.5pt win - 4th

Newbury
3.45
Burza 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Saa'Ida 0.25pt E/W - 9th

5.30
Beauchamp Wonder 0.5pt win - 3rd

Newmarket (July)
8.50
Manere Bay 1pt win - 3rd
Elisiario 0.25pt win - unplaced

Pontefract
7.35
Northern Dare 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2

8.40
Whipma Whopma Gate 0.5pt win - 2nd

All bets proofed to Racing Post

At Haydock and Newbury, Medicean Man, Lochan Mor, Burza, Saa'Ida and Beachamp Wonder were all bogged down in the soft ground and are capable of better than their performances today.

Manere Bay travelled very well in the soft conditions at Newmarket in the 8.50 but could only finish 3rd. She looks a good thing off this mark in a fillies race.

Northern Dare loved the barely raceable conditions are Ponty. He will represent little value NTO, especially on quicker ground but is a force when the mud is flying.

Whipma Whopma Gate showed no ill-effects from the fall at Ayr earlier in the week and ran a blinder to finish 2nd in the maiden handicap.

Thursday 16th July

2009-07-18T22:05:00.003+01:00

Hamilton
4.35
Tangerine Trees 1pt win - WON 11/4
Leonid Glow 0.5pt win - 3rd

Leicester
3.15
Orlando's Tale 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 10/1

4.25
Into The Light 0.5pt E/W - 6th

Bath
8.55
Espy 0.5pt E/W - 8th

Doncaster
8.40
Plaisterer 1pt E/W - WON 4/1

9.10
Countenence 0.25pt E/W - 7th

Epsom
7.45
Hallstatt 1pt win - 2nd
Funday 1pt win - 3rd

8.20
Crime Writer 0.5pt win - 3rd

8.50
Dream On Connie 0.25pt E/W - 6th

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Tangerine Trees took advantage of some lenient handicapping and completed a hat-trick in the 4.35 at Hamilton. Leonid Glow ran ok back in 3rd and is coming to hand.

Orlando's Tale was sickeningly (for me) beaten a nose on handicap debut in the 3.15 at Leicester. He should find a handicap soon.

Despite getting clobbered 5lb for the handicapper for a recent 2nd at Windsor, Plaisterer still looked extremely well treated and I was certain she would go well. She was ridden with supreme confidence by the under rated Jack Mitchell, showing decent toe coming from off the pace. This was a convincing win and despite a further 7lb hike for this win, I won't be betting against her in a hurry.

Impressive Lingfield maiden winner Funday but her handicap debut in the 7.45 at Epsom. She wasn't given the greatest ride in the world and is perhaps value for better than her 3rd position suggests.

Dream On Connie is coming to hand and ran well in the 8.50.

Espy ran better than the formline suggests in the 8.55 at Bath.

Wednesday 15th July

2009-07-15T23:03:00.003+01:00

Catterick
3.30
Ingleby Lady 1pt win - 3rd

Kempton
7.50
Fancy Footsteps 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 6/1 (adv)

9.20
Global Village 1.5pts win - WON 7/2 (adv)
Resentful Angel 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 14/1

All bets proofed to Racing Post

The ground was perhaps against Ingleby Lady in the 3.30 at Catterick so her 3rd can be seen as a decent performance. She will win again on a quicker surface.

The final furlong of the 7.50 at Kempton was puzzling. Fancy Footsteps, who appears on the way back after a springtime setback, looked all over the winner but was a well beaten 3rd in the end. Assail ran out a ready winner after looking beat at the one pole. Fancy Footsteps drifted to the far rail which isn't ideal these days and this can be seen as a most encouraging performance. She clearly enjoys Kempton.

I backed Global Village for the 4th time in succession. Given the horse was unpenalised for a recent easy win and always well backed, there was no way his SP was going to be anywhere near the 7/2 early bird price. He was smashed down to a price more indicative of his chances (11/8) before recording another victory. A real odds compiler(s) error.

Resentful Angel ran very well back in 3rd in the first time headgear.

Tuesday 14th July

2009-07-15T23:00:00.004+01:00

Beverley
2.15
Love In The West 0.5pt win - 2nd

3.15
Half A Crown 1pt E/W - 6th

5.15
Gaselee 1.5pt win - 2nd Evs (adv)

5.45
The Last Alzao 0.5pt win - WON 11/4
Mayoman 0.25pt E/W - 6th

Southwell
8.40
Uncle Brit 1pt win - WON 9/4

Yarmouth
7.20
Triple Dream 1pt win - unplaced

8.50
Sadaska 0.5pt win - 3rd

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Half A Crown is a horse I'm struggling to work out. Definitely well handicapped but there has been genuine excuses for defeats this season. Looked to hold a major chance in the 3.15 at Beverley, plum draw too, but despite travelling well could only finish 6th, narrowly out the frame.

Gaselee was disappointing on handicap debut in the 5.15. Probably didn't beat a great deal in a maiden previously but should find a handicap soon enough.

The Last Alzao completed a hat-trick and is clearly improving, there could be another win in this one as he took the amateur event with a bit in hand.

At Yarmouth, Triple Dream found the ground far too soft in the 7.20, the run should be completely ignored.

Sadaska ran ok in the 8.50, she can win a race but as with many of the yard's runners, the market will give and indication as to when.

Monday 13th July

2009-07-15T22:53:00.003+01:00

Ayr
3.00
Whipma Whopma Gate 0.5pt E/W - BD

Windsor
7.30
April's Daughter 1pt win - 8th
Bestowed 0.25pt E/W - 9th

8.30
Lyceana 0.25pt E/W - 5th

Wolverhampton
6.50
Trade Centre 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

8.50
Aflaam 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

13th July

My only daytime bet was Whipma Whopma Gate at Ayr but she was brought down in the melee on the home turn. The remainder of the meeting was cancelled.

Bestowed ran better than the formline suggests in the Windsor seller 7.30. I can see the horse running a big race at a massive price somewhere soon.

Aflaam didn't like 7f on poly and run poorly in the 8.50 at Wolverhampton. He can do better when getting his toe in a little more, perhaps over further or a stiffer 7f.

Sunday 12th July

2009-07-15T22:50:00.000+01:00

Southwell
4.30
Captain Crackers 1pt win - WON 7/4 (adv)

Saturday 11th July

2009-07-15T22:42:00.004+01:00

Ascot
2.20
Shamali 1pt win - WON 7/2

Chester
2.55
Theocritus 0.25pt win - 4th
I'm In The Pink 0.25pt win - 8th

Hamilton
7.40
Atlantic Beach 0.25pt E/W - 6th

8.10
Cheyenne Red 1pt win - 3rd

8.45
King Pin 0.5pt win - 3rd

Nottingham
2.15
Gundaroo 0.5pt win - 2nd

Salisbury
8.30
Seventh Cavalry 0.25pt win - 3rd
Yvonne Evelyn 0.25pt win - unplaced

9.00
Ave 0.5pt win - WON 9/4

York
3.10
Sweet Lightning 0.25pt E/W - 6th

Friday 10th July

2009-07-15T22:29:00.003+01:00

Chepstow
8.40
Thebes 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

9.10
Some Sunny Day 2pt win - 4th
Rockabout 0.5pt win - 7th

Chester
8.50
Hallstatt 1pt win - 2nd

Newbury
6.50
Love In The Park 1pt E/W - 3rd 6/1 (adv)

7.25
Burns Night 1.5pts win - 2nd

York
3.20
Without Prejudice 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Eastern Hills 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Newmarket (July)
1.30
Sovereign Remedy 1pt win - 3rd
Mohtashem 1pt win - 9th

2.35
Mutheeb 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 8/1 (adv)
Redford 0.5pt E/W - 6th

4.55
Pictorial 1pt win - unplaced
William Blake 0.25pt E/W - 6th

The final day of the July meeting.

Sovereign Remedy ran well without threatening in the opener and will surely find a handicap soon.

The Bunbury Cup was a farce. Plum Pudding was gifted a lead and was never headed. The 1-2-3-4 were front rank throughout. The performance of the race for me was undoubtedly Redford who put in a fantastic effort to get so close given his hold up style.

Main Aim and Fleeting Spirit ran brilliant races in the July Cup - as did Pacos Boy from an impossible position.

William Blake didn't see out 1m4f in the finale.

At Chepstow, Thebes finally got off the mark for this turf season - a well deserved victory.

Rockabout and Some Sunny Day run races full of promise in the 9.10 and will be getting their heads in front in handicap company soon.

Love In The Park run a solid race in the 6.50 at Newbury, he is holding his form well and looks sure to find at least another race.

Burns Night looked the winner in the 7.25 before being brushed aside by Credit Swap, he will fare better against his own age group.

Thursday 9th July

2009-07-15T22:21:00.004+01:00

Doncaster
7.10
Interdiamonds 1pt win - 2nd

9.15
First Swallow 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 9/1 (adv)

Newmarket (July)
2.00
Arcano 0.5pt win - WON 9/4 (adv)

2.35
Changing The Guard 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Eastern Aria 0.25pt E/W - 9th
High Severa 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Warwick
3.30
Kristallo 0.25pt E/W - 7th

4.40
Secret Hero 0.5pt win - 5th

All bets proofed to Racing Post

A fairly quiet day considering the quality of the racing. I was very impressed with the Arcano and Showcasing when they filled the 1-2 spots in their Newbury maiden on debut.

Every now and again you see a maiden, usually at Newmarket or Newbury, where you know the 1-2 or 1-2-3 (rather than just the winner) are decent. I saw it with Spout/Dance A Dream (1994), Bahhare/Equal Rights (1996), Soviet Song/Airwave (2002 although at Kempton), Hala Bek/Dragon Dancer (2006), and Delegator/Palavicini/Four Winds (2008). I'm sure there were more (and I'm sure there have been one or two I got wrong) but these are the ones that stick in my head, where I thought the 1-2(-3) were potential pattern performers as soon as they crossed the line.

I formed the same opinion when I saw Arcano and Showcasing fight out the finish on their debut. With Showcasing and others winning maidens since and the 3rd (Party Doctor) finishing 3rd in the Chesham I could be on the right track. Therefore Arcano was a rare bet for me in a 2yo Group race. He travelled smoothly throughout the race and took the July Stakes without much fuss.

Eastern Aria and High Severra turned out to be outclassed in the 2.35 although Changing The Guard put in another consistent performance in 5th.

Green Beret was desperate in the 4.55, he is a smart 3yo.

At Doncaster, Interdiamonds ran a fine race in the 7.10 considering the ground went against him.

First Swallow is weighted to strike at any moment and was well supported before the 9.15. He was off the bridle early but kept on well to snatch a place. He will win soon over 6f.

Wednesday 8th July

2009-07-08T21:07:00.003+01:00

Newmarket (July)
1.30
Photographic 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Mastoora 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Balaagha 0.5pt win - 2nd

2.00
Shamwari Lodge 0.5pt win - 8th
Rowayton 0.25pt E/W - 4th 25/1 (adv)
Akhenaten 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

2.35
Crown 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Raddy 'Ell Pauline 0.25pt E/W - 7th

5.30
Dingaan 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 25/1 (adv)
Admiral Dundas 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Catterick
3.30
Always Bold 0.5pt win - 2nd 4/1

4.05
Go Alone 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 8/1

Kempton
6.20
Global Village 0.75pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Another Try 0.25pt win - 3rd

6.50
Astarta 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 9/1

7.50
Pauls Pet 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

8.50
Isabelonabicycle 1pt win - WON 9/2 (adv)
Warrior Conquest 0.25pt win - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Drum Major 0.25pt win - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post

The start of the Newmarket July meeting and an extremely busy day.

Balaagha has her quirks but is extremely talented (and well treated), she looked an unlucky 2nd in the 1.30 at Newmarket after a tardy start. Photographic ran a solid race in 5th.

Shamwari Lodge and Akhenaten (2.00) finished their races well from off the pace. The former could have been ridden more aggressively but the latter may do better back over further. Rowayton did very well to finish 3rd and his performance was most impressive. The race was ran at a decent clip and he fared best of those up with the pace. He doesn't usually front run so I was surprised to see Jimmy Quinn adopting those tactics here, especially considering there were plenty of others willing to do that job. This was the 2nd decent big field performance from Rowayton this season there could be a decent prize in him. Long term he could be the replacement for Mine, who was a very successful handicapper for the yard.

Crown and Raddy 'Ell Pauline ran ok at big prices in the Cherry Hinton but are short of this level.

Elusive Pimpernel was impressive in taking the 3.45 on his debut. An exciting prospect.

I was shocked to see Dingaan rag of the field for the 5.30 and believed his morning odds to be an insult. Although he hasn't won for some time he is in form and well handicapped. It was no surprise to see him well backed on-course and run well. Another decent effort in defeat, a case of running into a better treated rival unfortunately.

At Catterick, Always Bold looked an unlucky loser in the 3.30, just failing to get up from an impossible position, it wasn't Freddy Tickle's finest hour.

Go Alone kept on well for 2nd in the 4.05. Was no match for Real Diamond but again showed enough to suggest a handicap win is on the horizon.

Another decent Wednesday evening card at Kempton. Global Village looked well treated and was crying out for a return to 7f. The early bird price of 9/2 was huge and he was well backed down to 9/4 before taking the 6.20 with something in hand. Another Try ran well in 3rd, he is still on the up.

Astarta finished well after losing his place in the maiden at 6.50. Should find a race.

Isabelonabicycle (8.50) is a horse I've followed with success this season and I was pleased to see William Buick take over on her for the first time. David Probert threw the race away on her LTO but Buick made no such mistakes. She travelled well but had to be shaken up before putting in a storming run down the outside. Warrior Conquest ran a cracker in 2nd and will be winning soon. Drum Major continues to disappoint.

Tuesday 7th July

2009-07-08T18:41:00.004+01:00

Pontefract
4.00
Red Jade 0.5pt win - 4th
Applaud 0.5pt win - 5th

4.30
Eton Rifles 1pt win - 3rd
Mark Of Meydan 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

5.30
Zouk 1pt win - 5th

Wolverhampton
4.15
Great Knight 1pt win - 5th

5.15
Diego Rivera 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Bonne 0.25pt E/W - 8th

Southwell
7.10
Carpe Diem 1pt win - 6th
Final Son 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

7.40
Terrymene Prince 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Swiss Art 2.5pts win - WON 5/4 (adv)

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Red Jade had everything in his favour for the 4.00 at Pontefract but could only finish 4th. He has been most disappointing this season. Applaud, one place behind, has also regressed.

Eton Rifles travelled like the winner in the 4.30 but it was a messy final 2f and he finished a close up 3rd. Compensation awaits. Draw and going were against Mark Of Meydan.

Zouk wasn't knocked about on handicap debut in the 5.30 and is capable of better.

Great Knight wasn't given a great ride in the 4.15 at Wolverhampton, there should be another race in him.

Carpe Diem disappointed once again in the 7.10 at Southwell. He is using up all his chances.

Swiss Art, like Diamond Laura earlier in the day at Wolverhamtpon, looked a good thing in an A/W claimer. He took the 7.40 in a battling finish.

Monday 6th July

2009-07-08T18:32:00.003+01:00

Musselburgh
2.45
That'll Do Nicely 0.5pt win - 4th

4.45
Mr Lu 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Ripon
6.50
Terrymene Prince 0.25pt E/W - 7th 100/1
Love In The West 1pt win - WON 5/2 (adv)

7.20
Zelos Dream 0.25pt E/W - 5th
Tagula Pearl 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

8.20
Devil You Know 0.5pt E/W - 4th

Windsor
7.00
Sircozy 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Dream On Connie 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to the Racing Post

A poor set of cards. Love In The West took the weak Ripon claimer fairly comfortably. Terrymene Prince, advised at 100/1, ran better than the market suggested, he travelled well for a long way prior to weakening late on.

Both Zelos Dream and Tagula Pearl ran better then their form lines suggest in the 7.20. They could be of interest in nurseries later on.

Devil You Know travelled like the winner in the 8.20 but didn't pick up and could only finish 4th. There must surely be another race in this 3yo.

You needed binoculars to see Dream On Connie and Sircozy at the halfway point in the 7.00 at Windsor. Both put in decent late work though, especially the latte who, despite coming home in 8th, finished the race better than any. Both remain of interest.

Sunday 5th July

2009-07-05T22:52:00.003+01:00

Ayr
2.10
Moneysupermarket 0.25pt E/W - 5th

2.40
Count Bertoni 0.5pt win - 5th

3.10
Ensnare 0.5pt win - WON 5/1
King Of Rhythm 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

3.40
Herrera 0.25pt E/W -6th
Merrion Tiger 0.25pt E/W - 4th

4.40
Royal Destination 0.5pt win - WON 3/1

July
Bets 33
Winners 12
S/R 36%
Staked 30pts
Returned 41.62pts
P/L 11.62pts
Yield 39%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

All bets came at Ayr where Moneysupermarket ran well to finish 5th at a big price in the 2.10.

Ensnare followed up on his recent A/W win under a 6lb penalty. He still looked well treated so it will be interesting to see what the handicapper does now.

Hererra and Merrion Tiger ran better than their finishing positions suggest in the 3.40.

Royal Destination looked fairly treated for his handicap debut and took the 4.40 with a bit in hand. There is more to come for sure.

Saturday 4th July

2009-07-05T22:10:00.005+01:00

Beverley
4.25
Catch Key 0.25pt E/W - 4th

Haydock
3.30
Hevelius 0.5pt E/W - 6th

Leicester
3.35
Stravella 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 16/1 (adv)
Whooska 0.5pt win - 4th
Rio Guru o.25pt E/W - unplaced

Sandown
2.40
Acrostic 0.25pt E/W - WON 15/2 (adv)
Tanto Faz 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.55
Satefisio 1pt win - 3rd

5.30
Senses 0.5pt win - 4th

Carlisle
7.05
Eastern Hills 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 8/1 (adv)
Young Gladiator 0.25pt E/W - 6th

8.05
Lauras Lady 1.5pt win - 3rd

Nottingham
8.20
Liberally 0.25pt E/W - WON 7/1 (adv)
Gilded Age 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 10/1 (adv)

9.20
Focail Eile 0.25pt E/W - 4th 16/1

July
Bets 28
Winners 10
S/R 36%
Staked 26.5pts
Returned 36.62pts
P/L 10.12pts
Yield 38%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

4th July

From the list...
Acrostic WON 7/1
Liberally WON 4/1

Shane Kelly gave Hevelius a poor ride in the 3.30 Haydock. Without doubt there is a decent prize in him.

The 3.35 at Leicester was a decent fillies handicap. Whooska was a massive drifter but showed enough in 4th to suggest she can win more races, while Stravella made a bold attempt from the front, both look on marks within their capabilities.

Acrostic (2.40 Sandown) had travelled well without winning so far this season so even though C-P Lemaire appeared to be cruising approaching the last, I for one wasn't confident he'd pick up sufficiently. Thankfully Lemaire and Acrostic just did enough to get in front on the line. He obviously doesn't find as much as expected but on the plus side his style should keep him well handicapped. Tanto Faz found the ground too lively.

Santefisio (4.55) wasn't given a great ride by Jimmy Fortune. Held up way off the pace the ran of well making up many lenghts inside the final half furlong. Although not 100% straightforward he has much more ability than the handicapper currently suggests.

Senses wasn't suited by the lack of pace in the 5.30 and is better than he showed here.

At Nottingham both Liberally and Gilded Age were well backed before the 8.20. Both looked to be coming to hand so it was no surprise to see them fight out the finish. They can continue to be competitive over the coming weeks.

Focail Eile ran a fine race in the 9.20. He travelled as well as any and looked the likely winner at the one pole. He could only finish 4th come the finish but it was a much improved effort on LTO (his first start for sometime) and handicap success may not be too far away.

Friday 3rd July

2009-07-05T21:53:00.003+01:00

Warwick
4.20
New Leyf 0.5pt E/W - unplaced

Salisbury
7.35
Cill Rialaig 1pt win - 2nd

8.40
Marina Bay 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Azharia 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

9.10
Some Sunny Day 1pt win - 2nd
Seasonal Cross 0.5pt win - 3rd

Haydock
8.50
Silent Oasis 1pt win - 4th

9.20
One Scoop Or Two 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Beverley
8.30
Shaylee 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1 (adv)
Linby 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

July
Bets 18
Winners 7
S/R 39%
Staked 17pts
Returned 28.72pts
P/L 11.72pts
Yield 69%

At Beverley, Coltswold fulfilled the promise of his maiden win with a decent victory here, his first in handicap company.

Shaylee appreciated the step up in trip to score in the 8.30 off a lenient looking mark. Linby didn't show in behind.

In the 8.50 at Haydock, Silent Oasis was disappointing, even taking into consideration how quick she was forced to travel early on.

Cill Rialaig was narrowly denied in the 7.35 a Salisbury. She is improving and as long as the handicapper doesn't over react she will gain compensation soon.

Kuanyao was an impressive winner of the 8.40, there could be more to come. Marina Walk and Azharia didn't figure although the former showed there may be a race in her in time.

The 9.10 was most frustrating with both my selections losing out in the three-way photo. Some Sunny Day, who surprisingly allowed to go off 6/1, was beaten a short-head, wheres the well backed Seasonal Cross was a neck away in 3rd. Both will be winning soon, especially Some Sunny Day.

Covert Ambition did well to chase home stablemate Kirklees in the 4.00 at Sandown, he was held up off a modest pace.

Thursday 2nd July

2009-07-05T21:31:00.003+01:00

Haydock
2.40
Lady Springbank 0.5pt win - 3rd

Epsom
6.20
Watson's Bay 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 6/1

7.25
Wellington Square 0.75pt win - 3rd
Ivory Lace 0.25pt win - 5th

Newbury
6.30
Arab League 0.5pt win - 2nd
Filun 0.5pt win - 8th

8.10
Gallagher 1pt win - WON 6/5

8.40
Arabian Pearl 0.25pt win - 4th
Shangani 0.25pt win - 5th
Cape Melody 0.25pt win 6th

Redcar
9.20
Floras Pride 0.25pt E/W - 5th

Yarmouth
4.30
Cwm Rhondda 0.75pt win - WON 13/8
Sawab 0.25pt win - 5th

July
Bets 11
Winners 6
S/R 55%
Staked 10pts
Returned 25.22pts
P/L 15.22pts
Yield 152%

All bets proofed to Racing Post

Cwm Rhondda again showed her liking for the 10f's at Yarmouth, winning well under a confident ride. She has been a great horse to follow recently. Sawab ran ok in 5th.The evening cards were decent.

At Epsom Watson's Bay (6.20) ran his usal race. Very consistent but not one to be trusted inside the last.

In the 7.25, Wellington Square was travelling well until stumbling at a crucial time. He kept on well for 3rd and compensation awaits. Ivory Lace ran a solid but never threatening race in behind.

At Newbury the apprentice handicap at 6.30 was run at a stop-start pace. Filun disappointed badly, Arab League was arguably unlucky in 2nd.

Gallagher showed his class in the conditions stakes at 8.10. He got a nice lead from Plum Pudding and nothing else got into the race. It will be interesting to see how he is campaigned from now on.

Arabian Pearl, Cape Melody and Shangani all travelled well before failing to finish their races in the 8.40. All can win more races.

Floras Pride ran ok in the 9.20 at Redcar, a little respite from the handicapper will see her competitive in similar grades.

Wednesday 1st July

2009-07-01T21:50:00.003+01:00

Chepstow
8.40
Tuxedo 0.25pt win - 4th

9.10
Gioacchino 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Onebidkintymill 0.25pt E/W - WON 40/1

Kempton
8.20
Swingkeel 1pt win - WON 2/1 (adv)

8.50
The Last Don 0.5pt win - WON 8/1 (adv)
Alittlemoreflair 0.25pt E/W - 7th
Sullenberger 0.25pt E/W - 8th

All bets proofed to the Racing Post

July
Bets 4
Winners 3
S/R 75%
Staked 3.75pts
Returned 20.5pts
P/L 16.75pts
Yield 447%

A fantastic start to July.

Tuxedo threatened in the 8.40 at Chepstow but his effort petered out tamely. He is perhaps a pound or three too high.

Thought both Gioacchino and Onebidkintymill were well handicapped and over priced for the 9.10. The former never showed, perhaps finding the ground to fast but Onebidkintlymill was travelling smoothly at halfway. I started getting excited when J-P Guillambert brought him to the front a two furlongs out and after a tense 1/4 mile he was a neck in front at the line, winning at 40/1. I've gone close with big priced selections recently (100/1 and 50/1 (twice) placed in June) so it was great to get one home. He travelled like a horse better than this grade so there could be more races to be won over the summer.

Swingkeel was a losing bet for me LTO when collared late on by Judgethemomemt, that form looks very decent now and despite a 2lb hike, Swingkeel was obviously well treated going into the 8.20. Jimmy Fortune was extremely confident throughout, looking around when challenging inside the last before giving him the office. The 3l margin was value for more.

The Last Don looked sure to improve for the step up to 1m4f on his handicap debut and it transpired that he needed every yard of that trip. He showed a decent turn of foot to score on his handicap debut continuing the decent form of David Lanigan.

Royal Envoy looked well treated for the last but never got going.

An Exciting Month

2009-07-01T00:55:00.008+01:00

June has always been a good month for me and 2009 proved no exception. Busy but profitable.

39% SR
78 winners or EW placed
Over 40pts profit - average bet 1.07pts

Some fantastic winners during this period, the highlights being...

3rd June - 14/1 winner (Volito)
4th June - 16/1 winner (Shavansky - dead heated)
5th June - 4 winners from 5 bets in the update message - all at 11/2 or bigger
7th June - 33/1 winner (Gioacchino)
9th June - Two 10/1 winners (The Last Alzao & Cill Rialaig)
11th June - 50/1 EW bet finishes 2nd (Big Boom)
12th June - 4 winning bets from 5 in the update message - all 5/1 or bigger
13th June - 100/1 EW bet placed (Eastern Hills) and 14/1 winner (Changing The Guard)
20th June - 10/1 and 9/1 winners (Ingleby Lady and La Zamora)
22nd June - Max bet (3pts) wins, returning 10pts
23rd June - 3 bets, 3 winners
26th June - 12/1 winning nap (Mark Of Meydan)
27th June - 20/1 EW nap placed (Boy Blue)
28th June - 12/1 EW nap beaten a head
29th June - 50/1 EW bet placed (Pauls Pet)

...among others.

The success of the bigger priced selections was most pleasing. The service has shown great consistency with massively priced EW bets and we have enjoyed plenty of excitement with them. There is nothing more satisfying than cheering home a horse inside the last that has been ignored by (almost) everyone else.

So with the sun baking the ground all over the country and Wimbledon in full swing, June comes to an end. Here's hoping for more of the same in July.

Tuesday 30th June

2009-06-30T22:32:00.002+01:00

Brighton
3.30
Lady Florence 0.5pt win - WON 7/2 (adv)

5.00
Rocket Rob 1pt win - 3rd

5.30
Espy 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 4/1

All bets proofed to the Racing Post.

Despite the firm going it paid to come across to the near side rail at Brighton, the result of recent watering.

Lady Florence had ran into two well handicapped types in Mountain Cat and Hypnotic recently so looked to hold massive form chances in this seller. She had yet to win a race but she had never contested a race this weak when in form and she was worth chancing. She ran out a comfortable 3l winner.

Drifting off the rail cost Rocket Rob any chance he held in the 5.00.

Espy travelled well enough in the 5.30 but was no match for the front two come the final furlong. He doesn't look the same horse this season but his last two efforts have been encouraging

Despite looking in trouble at halfway, Aldaado ran out an easy winner of the 3.15 at Hamilton. He is progressing nicely and there should be more to come when upped in trip.

A combination of getting hampered and inexperience cost Call To Arms making a winning debut in the 7.00 at Thirsk. He is nailed on for a maiden.

Monday 29th June

2009-06-30T22:05:00.003+01:00

Wolverhampton
2.30
Two Turtle Doves 0.25pt E/W - 6th

5.00
Capucci 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 10/1 (adv)

Pontefract
4.15
Sadaska 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
The Quiet Genius 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

5.45
Kipchak 0.5pt win - unplaced

Windsor
8.10
Rio Guru 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 16/1 (adv)
Blow Hole 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

8.40
Course De Diamante 0.5pt win - 5th

9.10
Tignello 0.5pt win - 5th
Pauls Pet 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 50/1 (adv)

Musselburgh
8.25
Solas Alainn 1.5pt win - 3rd
Mooted 0.5pt win - WON 3/1 (adv)

8.55
Carpe Diem 1pt win - 7th
Al Wasef 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

9.25
Street Spirit 0.25pt E/W - 7th

All bets proofed to the Racing Post.

A extremely busy day.

I feared the 6f was too sharp for Two Turtles Doves in the 2.30 and that did turn out to be the case. It was a fair performance under the circumstances, Seb Sanders was motionless once it was clear she couldn't win. A similar race over further with a couple of pound off for this run (hopefully) could see her go well at a price next time out.

Capucci looked all over the winner in the 5.00 but wouldn't go by Major Phil. Well handicapped but not the toughest in a finish. Definitely an "in-running horse".

Sadaska (4.15 Pontefract) was very weak in the market prior to her handicap debut which is a big negative given her stable. She showed some ability though and I will keep my eye on her over this trip and further.

Kipchak went off too quick in the 5.45

On to Windsor where Racing Hero was a ridiculously short price for the 8.10. I looked elsewhere for value with Rio Guru and Blow Hole. Rio Guru ran her usual solid race (2nd) but was no match for Resurge. Blow Hole was beaten a long way, he left the Noseda yard for just 9,000gns late last year and has clearly lost some ability.

Course De Diamante was disappointing on her handicap debut in the 8.40. She still looks plenty green though and I wouldn't write her off just yet.

Tignello was again a beaten fav in the 9.10, I have no idea what happened inside the last furlong when he was heavily eased by Ryan Moore. He is fast running out of chances. Pauls Pet looked to be slowly coming to hand and looked ridiculously over priced at 50/1 (early birds). He kept on nicely for 3rd to land another juicy E/W bet.

The 8.25 at Musselburgh looked a match between Solas Alainn and Mooted. Neither are totally straightforward but both looked a cut above their rivals here. Solas Alainn took them along before weakening and it was Mooted that come there travelling two out and this time he went through with his effort to score well.

Carpe Diem was give little chance to show in the 8.55, held up way off the pace.

Street Spirit ran ok in the 9.25 he has shown enough to suggest he can find a small race. Trade Price and George Adamson are the others to take from the race.

Prophetable Statistics #1

2009-06-29T13:50:00.003+01:00

#1 Stuart Williams - "fancied" 3yo handicap debutants

Of those starting at 10/1 or lower since 2006...

29% (6/21) have won
62% (13/21) have placed at least
£1235 profit to £100 level stakes - 59% yield

Average price of 21 runners were 9/2 so plenty of E/W opportunities.

In recent season the shrewd yard have been sent a lot more 2/3yos and have enjoyed much success with them.

The findings have proved what I have always believed, Stuart Williams is a decent trainer and if a horse shows any ability he will find a race for it. Many of those beaten on handicap bow went on to score on the 2nd or 3rd handicap start.

The market is key with this yard, although one or two handicap debutants have run well at big prices, those that figure prominently in the market fair a great deal better. Obviously this yard know exactly where they are with their 3yos.

However many punters and odds compilers try to second-guess this yard and I believe that a few gambles on the yard's horses have nothing to do with connections at all.

"Fancied" handicap debutants however do seem to run consistently well.

One 3yo handicap debutant today: Sadaska, in the 4.15 at Pontefract who is currently best priced 7/1.

She looks to hold a major form chance also. Looks well treated on her debut effort, and with improvement for this longer trip expected, could be a blot on the handicap.

She is by Fantastic Light, out of a mare that has produced

Behego - six time winner from 1m6f to 2m3f
Hawbridge King - winner from 1m6f to 2m4f
Strobe (full brother) - five time winner from 1m4f to 2m4f

Today she steps up from 7f (twice) and 10f (LTO) to the stiff 1m4f at Pontefract.

If Sadaska doesn't continue the trend today you will get it all back very soon over further.

Sunday 28th June

2009-06-29T13:49:00.002+01:00

Salisbury
2.35
Seventh Cavalry 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 14/1

5.20
Whotsit 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 12/1 (adv)

Windsor
4.35
El Loco Uno 0.5pt win - unplaced

Curragh
4.20
Rockhampton 0.25pt E/W - unplaced
Drumbeat 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

All bets proofed to Racing Post.

Regardless of the result at Epsom, Team O'Brien got their tactics wrong. It was a totally different story here though. Pace/tactics were spot on and it worked perfectly for Fame And Glory who ran out an easy 5l winner.

Although Seventh Cavalry has yet to get his head in front (beaten in 11 maidens), he is fairly consistent so the handicapper has been pretty fair dropping him 20lbs over the past 12 months. If his mark keeps slipping he will eventually find a race, I thought it could be this one (2.35). He ran well and not for the first time in his career looked the winner. He couldn't quite get to Merrymadcap though but at 14/1 he was a decent E/W bet.

Alqaffay was a fair 2nd in the maiden at 4.45. The fact that his powerful stable have persevered with him should not be ignored. Success in handicaps awaits.

I took 33/1 about Whotsit LTO (backed down to 10/1) but the horse was given no chance due to a poor ride from his inexperienced pilot. I felt he would've been in the shake up with a clear run so off a lower mark here he could not be ignored. Again well backed, 12/1 (morning) to 5/1 (SP), he looked all over the winner (1/16 in running), this time getting a positive ride from Laura Pike, but was cruelly collared late on.

Saturday 27th June

2009-06-28T14:44:00.004+01:00

Newcastle
3.10
Buddhist Monk 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

3.45
Boy Blue 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 20/1 (adv)

Windsor
4.40
Divisnky 0.25pt E/W - 2nd 14/1 (adv)
Bountiful Bay 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

5.10
Kindest 0.5pt win - 3rd
Candy Ride 0.5pt win - 2nd

Newmarket
5.05
Another Try 0.25pt E/W - 6th

Doncaster
8.10
Wild Rhubarb 0.5pt win - 3rd

8.45
Fancy Footsteps 0.25pt win - 3rd 12/1 (adv)
Laura's Lady 0.25pt win - 4th
Milton Of Campsie 0.25pt E/W - 5th

All bets proofed to Racing Post.

In the 2.40 at Chester, Act Of Kalinisi just failed to get up on handicap debut. It was a fine effort from off the pace around here and compensation awaits.

In the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, Look Here found 10f too sharp at this level. She is a genuine G1 horse, but at 1m4f.

Tony Culhane stole the Northumerland Plate off 16 brain-dead jockeys. Plenty in behind are worth another chance, notebly Hendersyde and Electrolyser. Meethaaq (tailed off) was coltish for the 3rd time this season - he needs a trip to the vets.

Boy Blue (3.45) was mentioned on this blog back in April when he took my eye behind Billy Dane. He put in another solid performance after that before disappointing around an unsuitable Chester. Back on a course that suits and off a 1lb lower mark I though he held every chance here. I was amazed to see him priced up 20/1 outsider of the field in the morning and with 9 going to post he looked a fair E/W selection. He battled all the way to the line but was beaten less than a length into 3rd place.

The topically named Sunshine Always just failed in the 5.25 and must find a handicap soon.

At Newmarket, Another Try's winning run came too an end, he didn't really see out this 7f trip.

Dvinsky ran a solid race in the 4.40 at Windsor, he is in form at the moment and looks well treated on the turf.

Candy Ride and Kindest were a little bit disappointing (2nd & 5th) in the 5.10 but are worth another chance in their own age group.

Fancy Footsteps put in a more encouraging effort in the 8.45 at Doncaster. She is on the way back. Laura's Lady ran ok and Milton Of Campsie ran well for a long way at a price.

Friday 26th June

2009-06-27T01:09:00.003+01:00

Doncaster
3.25
Without Prejudice 0.5pt win - 3rd
The Galloping Shoe 0.5pt win - 4th

5.05
Unbelievable Jeff 0.5pt win - 4th
She's In The Money 0.5pt win - 6th
Volito 0.5pt win - 7th

Newcastle
7.25
Cheveton 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Hamish McGonagall 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 10/1 (adv)

8.55
Mark Of Meydan 1pt E/W - WON 12/1 (adv)

Without Prejudice and The Galloping Shoe ran solid races without threatening when 3rd and 4th in the 3.25 at Doncaster. I still think there are races to be won with this pair and I'm not losing faith yet.

I thought the The Scorching Wind was too short for the 5.05 but he took the race with relative east. Unbelievable Jeff ran ok from out the weights and I would imagine he will find a race when allowed to run off his true mark. She's In The Money dropped away quickly on handicap debut and Volito, who has been disappointing since winning, was well back in 7th.

Mark Johnston had a 1-2 in the 7.45 at Chester. Alpha Glen looks a decent progressive type and Easter Aria continues to hold her form.

They split into three groups for the Gosforth Park Sprint at Newcastle. As expected Hamish McGonagall ran his best race of the season, he will be winning again soon. Cheveton put in a rare unplaced effort but he stayed far side, the group that was most disadvantaged. Indian Trail probably deserves plenty of credit for "winning" the far side and finishing 5th overall.

The confident NAP of the day, Mark Of Meydan, was a horse I knew was about to catch fire. Was badly hampered when carrying the money at Ponty LTO but made no mistakes in the 8.55 when finally allowed to show his form. At 12/1 (morning and opening show) he was possibly one of the best value bets this season. I believe there is more to come.

Thursday 25th June

2009-06-27T01:06:00.003+01:00

Kempton
3.40
Set The Trend 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 11/2 (adv)

4.40
Ostaadi 1pt win - 2nd

5.40
Tender Charm 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Newcastle
5.30
Go Alone 0.5pt E/W - 6th
Seldom 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Set The Trend ran another solid race, this time when up in the grade in the 3.40 at Kempton. The front running Cloudy Start was gifted the race so Set The Trend deserves plenty of credit for pulling clear of the 3rd. He is undoubtedly better than his handicap rating, although the handicapper may act after this.

Ostaadi was 2nd again in the 4.40. I'm not sure if this horse is quirky or just green, I will continue to monitor as I have the feeling he has a big performance in him when it all clicks.

Tender Charm didn't show in the 5.40.

Go Alone was slightly disappointing on his handicap debut in the 5.30 at Newcastle, but he was positioned wide after losing his pitch and is worth another chance.

Wednesday 24th June

2009-06-27T01:01:00.003+01:00

Salisbury
1.35
King Of Wands 1pt win - WON 11/4 (adv)

4.55
L'Hirondell 0.25pt E/W - 4th

Carlisle
3.05 Shadowtime 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

4.10
King Fingal 0.5pt E/W - unplaced
Dazzling Light 0.25pt win - 5th

4.40
Off Chance 0.5pt win - 4th

Bath
9.10
Style Icon 0.5pt E/W - 6th
Espy 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 10/1 (adv)

Kempton
7.50
Deraaya 0.5pt win - unplaced
Lady Amberlini 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

8.50
Uncle Fred 0.5pt win - 2nd
Penperth 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

The day started brightly but there was little to cheer about after.

King Of Wands is a horse I'd had one eye on since last season and he is no beginning to show his potential. He looked ahead of the handicapper and was well backed prior to winning the 1.35 at Salisbury. A typical John Dunlop progressive 3yo.

L'Hirondelle looked ill at ease in the 4.55. Possibly due to a combination of the firm ground and the first time eye-shields - he seemed to dislike both.

In the 3.05 Carlisle, Shadowtime looked to hold a decent chance to gain compensation for some recent unlucky efforts. He was front rank throughout but weakened badly, he looked like a tired horse and perhaps his recent exploits have taken their toll.

King Fingal and Dazzling Light put him puzzling flat displays in the 4.10, they are both better than this.

Off Chance travelled well in the 4.40 but found little off the bridle and could only finish 4th. The 9lb hike for her recent win stopped her progress, although she may fare better back in her own age group.

At typical competitive card at Kempton. Running from out the weights was too much to ask of Lady Amberlini in the 7.50. She will do better when allowed to run off her actual mark, I believe she is well handicapped.

Dance The Star was given poor ride by Jamie Spencer in the 8.20. He was motionless at the rear of the field at the start of the home straight then was short of room briefly. He did well to finish a close 4th and will be winning again soon. He looked a decent prospect last season and David Simcock has always liked him.

Jim Crowly gave Uncle Fred an odd ride in the 8.50. He gave him plenty to do and challenged widest of all, almost scraping the near rail which is usually unheard of. Under the circumstances Uncle Fred run a blinder to finish 2nd, running on well from "out the picture". He is improving and is still ahead of the handicapper.

In the 9.10 at Bath, David Probert was almost statuesque on Style Icon, he is worth another chance. Espy put in some decent late work to snatch 2nd, he is finally coming to hand this season.

Tuesday 23rd June

2009-06-24T00:43:00.002+01:00

Brighton
3.00
Hypnotic 0.5pt E/W - WON 5/1 (adv)

Newbury
8.30
Burza 0.5pt win - WON 9/1 (adv)

9.00
Triple Dream 0.5pt E/W - 2nd 10/1 (adv)

Sunday 21st June

2009-06-22T19:04:00.008+01:00

Pontefract
2.40
Sawab 0.25pt E/W - 4th

3.10
William Blake 2pts win - 3rd

Monday 22nd June

2009-06-22T19:04:00.007+01:00

Wolverhampton
3.30
Pipers Piping 0.5pt win - unplaced

4.30
Global Village 1.5pt win - 3rd
Great Knight 1pt win - WON 9/1
Triumphant Welcome 0.5pt win - unplaced

Lingfield
4.45
Rose Bloom 0.5pt win - unplaced
Love In The Park 0.5pt win - WON 5/1 (adv)

Windsor
6.40
Yvonne Evelyn 0.25pt E/W - 6th
Aprils Daughter 0.25pt E/W - 3rd 33/1

7.40
Devil You Know 0.5pt win - 2nd

Chepstow
7.50
I'm In The Pink 1.5pt win - 4th

8.50
Signora Frasi 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

9.20
Foreign Investment 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 14/1

All bets proofed to Racing Post

+8.44pts on the day

Pipers Piping was a little disappointing in the Wolverhampton claimer at 3.30. That said he raced up with the generous early gallop and all those that did, suffered.

I couldn't see anything winning the sprint apart from Great Knight, Global Village and Triumphant Welcome. As mentioned in a previous post, Great Knight ran a cracker LTO. He fared best of those who ran up with the lunatic gallop and tracking a more sensible gallop here he ran out a ready winner, the 9/1 SP was a pleasant surprise. Global Village is well handicapped and will win a handicap over 7f very soon. Triumphant Welcome needs fibresand or give to show her best.

At Lingfield, Love In The Park looked to have a great opportunity to get off the mark in the 4.45. She was well supported before Jack Mitchell gave her a confident ride to victory. She's no world beater but there should be more to come.

At Windsor (6.40) I felt both April's Daughter and Yvonne Evelyn were over priced and well handicapped on best. The latter ran as if needing the run but the former put in a much improved effort to run on well for 3rd at 33/1.

Despite finishing 2nd, Devil You Know was arguably the best horse at the weights in the 7.40. He is progressing nicely.

I'm In The Pink was a little disappointing at Chepstow (7.50) - found nothing after travelling well.

Foreign Investment ran well in the last, I'm certain there is a race in her. Will go close in the grade very soon.

Ascot Aftermath

2009-06-21T19:57:00.004+01:00

Forget Yeats, Ghanaati and Canford Cliffs. Impressive as they were they're unlikely to represent value next time out, and I doubt they will make us rich from now to season end.

What about the less obvious promising performances in behind? Below are a few horses who ran better than the formlines suggest. Hopefully these will gain compensation in the near future and due to the fact that the majority (odds compilers included) often get race reading wrong, these are likely to be over priced when next seen.

Xtension (Coventry)
Plenty of good late work, passed all but one of the field to finish 2nd.

Rakaan (Coventry)
Although his formlines suggest he is consistent (223), he is actually improving with every run. Slaughtered his Goodwood conqueror (Fremont) here.

Always Bold (Ascot Handicap)
Did well to finish 8th after losing his position badly inside the final mile. In good heart over hurdles recently and remains of interest on either code.

Gallagher (Jersey)
Ran a blinder to finish 4th on his first start in over 8 months, and even threatened at the one pole. A quality horse and a decent prize is on the horizon if placed accordingly.

Lovelace (Hunt Cup)
Those on the far side held little chance and it was a great performance to finish 1st of that group (9th overall) after an unclear passage. Is in fine form this season and well treated - only 2lb higher than when unlucky in the Bunbury last year.

Crown (Queen Mary)
Taken off her feet early but showed good speed to cut trough plenty of the field mid-race.

Tawaabb (Norfolk)
Travelled well despite seeing plenty of daylight. Progressing nicely.

Nosedive (Norfolk)
One of the most inexperienced in the field and it showed. Got behind early and found plenty of trouble. Flew when in the clear to finish 4th.

Diamond Johnny G (Norfolk)
Like Nosedive had just the one run under his belt prior to this (2nd in Lingfield maiden). Again he shaped with promise, finishing his race well in 6th place.

Highland Glen (King George V)
There were many ill-judged Ryan Moore rides to choose from last week but this ranks highly. Ran on well into 6th place after given too much to do.

Brunston (King George V)
Did well to finish 9th considering how keen he was early on.

Native Ruler (King Edward VII)
Did best of those who travelled up with the lightning quick gallop. Still bang there until the final furlong before unsurprisingly weakening into 7th.

Rainbow View (Coronation)
2nd best horse on the day for me and this was a most encouraging run.

Redford (Buckingham Palace)
Travelled better than most before finishing 3rd. This was his best effort on fast going and it proves his well being. Surprised the handicapper still has him as a sub-100 horse and looks sure to find a big prize when the juice is in the ground.

Multheeb (Buckingham Palace)
By far the most inexperienced in the line-up and that may have been his undoing. Carried left inside the last but kept on well for 4th place. A decent effort against these battle-hardy types and, as mentioned previously on this blog, is a nice prospect.

Markab (Wokingham)
Like many 7f horses before him, Markab ran a blinder in the Wokingham. Arguably unlucky in 4th as for the first time this week the near side rail was not the place to be. The far side ground when said to be quicker, fuelling watering rumours, and all the other pace horses were drawn, or switched to, the far side. As a result Markab raced alone for the entire race but looked the winner until the far side gained the upper hand late on.

Crackentorp (Duke of Edinburgh)
Suffered a bruised foot two days before the race and despite connections stating he had recovered I have my doubts. He is much better than he showed on Saturday.

Newmarket, Goodwood, York........here we come!

Saturday 20th June

2009-06-21T11:32:00.003+01:00

Royal Ascot
5.00
Crackentorp 1pt E/W - unplaced

Ayr
3.25
Dolly Penrose 0.75pt E/W - 2nd 4/1 (adv)

Newmarket
3.50
La Zamora 0.5pt win - WON 9/1
Lenny Bee 0.5pt win - 6th

5.30
Watson's Bay 0.5pt E/W - 4th

Redcar
4.10
Ingleby Lady 0.25pt E/W - WON 10/1 (adv)

5.55
Exciteable 0.5pt E/W - 3rd 7/1 (adv)

Lingfield
6.20
Son Of My Heart 0.5pt win - 3rd
Stormy Summer 0.25pt win - unplaced
Sponge 0.25pt win - unplaced

Haydock
6.35
Hippolytus 0.5pt win - WON 7/2 (adv)
Princess Rainbow 0.5pt win - 3rd

8.05
Never Ending Tale 0.5pt win - unplaced

A very pleasing day away from Ascot. At Ayr, Dolly Penrose travelled like the winner before finishing 2nd in the 3.25. She isn't the easiest to win with but is well handicapped and will continue to run consistently. She will do better on a soft surface as it negates the speed of possible rivals.

At Newmarket, La Zamora bolted up in the 3.50 at the very generous price of 9/1. She looked unlucky on her handicap debut previously and made no mistake when allowed to show here best here. Lenny Bee in behind has used up all his chances.

Watson's Bay continues to run consistently and was 4th in the 5.30. He doesn't find as much as expected off the bridle so he needs some assistance from the saddle. You don't get that with Jimmy Quim (not a typo).

At Redcar I felt that Ingleby Lady (twice a losing bet for us) was worth another chance. She suffered for the lack of pace on her previous start and, like her stablemate La Zamora, she was allowed to show her form here and didn't disappoint.

Excitebale was subject of a huge gamble for the 5.55. He ran well enough on seasonal debut to finish a close 3rd, he may have been at disadvantage running alone on the near rail for most of the race.

There are races to be won with Son Of My Heart and Stormy Summer who were 3rd and 8th in the 6.20 at Lingfield.

At Haydock Hippolytus appreciated the step up to 10f, winning the 6.35. The lack of pace would not have been ideal so there is a chance this performance will be under rated. Princess Rainbow back in 3rd will appreciate more of a test.

Friday 19th June

2009-06-21T11:26:00.004+01:00

Royal Ascot
4.20
Stone Of Scone 1.5pt win - unplaced
Moonquake 0.25pt win - 2nd
Khateeb 0.25pt win - unplaced

5.30
Multheeb 1pt E/W - 4th 10/1 (adv)
Mr Macattack 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

Redcar
5.05
King Pin 0.5pt E/W - WON 11/2 (adv)
Moonage Daydream 0.25pt E/W - unplaced

See "Ascot Aftermeth" post for Ascot races.

King Pin had shown enough in his short career to suggest a handicap win wasn't too far away and he landed a gamble in the 5.05 at Redcar. I like this consistent horse and there could be another race in him. In behind, Moonage Daydream didn't build on his promsing effort at Beverley, although may fare better over slightly shorter.